This round of coal price rise is limited

Since last Friday, demand has improved, inquiry customers have increased and port coal prices, which have fallen for nearly half a month, have finally ushered in an increase. There are three main reasons for this round of coal price rise: first, the release of backlog demand after a week's suspension of North-South routes; second, the resistance rebound of coal prices in the market supported by the shipping costs of traders; and third, the price fell below the annual long-term price of large groups to stimulate a wave of procurement enthusiasm. It is expected that this round of coal prices will rise for a short period of time and at a very limited rate, with an expected increase of 5-10 CNY/ton. The specific reasons are as follows:

1. Inventory of downstream power plants is high.

Although the northern port has suffered a week of bad weather, accidents and other reasons resulting in the reduction of production and the interruption of the North-South route, the main power plants along the downstream coast, relying on high stocks and a certain amount of imported coal, have not affected the normal power generation and coal use. No matter the key power plants or the six major coastal power plants, coal storage is all at a high level. From the change of coal storage in coastal power plants, coal storage decreased from 17.48 million tons on August 4 to 16.72 million tons on August 14, with a very small decline. The main power plants are not short of coal, and there is not much coal in the haulage market.

2. The daily consumption of power plants is difficult to perform well. Summer is coming to an end. With the decrease of high temperature weather, daily consumption of coastal power plants will gradually decrease, and the load of civil power will be reduced. It is expected that the daily consumption of the six coastal power plants will remain below 750,000 tons this week; the demand of users is not high, and when the coal is delivered, the counter-offer price will continue to be depressed, and the purchase of coal in the rising market will be reduced. Once the market price of coal exceeds the user's psychological price, the price of coal will fall into a market with or without price.

3. Cement and chemical industries have not been fully restored.

Cement industry started off in early June with staggered peak production. At present, there is no time for resumption of production. Most cement industries in East China need to wait until the end of National Day in October to resume production. At present, a small number of cement and chemical enterprises in South China have limited purchases of coal in the market, which will not lead to a sharp rise in coal prices.

4. Coal trucks entering Hong Kong began to increase and coal supply was not tight.

The recent comprehensive supervision of coal mine safety production has little impact on coal mine production. With the comprehensive recovery of loading and unloading production in the Bohai Sea harbor, coal turnover has accelerated, most of the backlog of coal ships have been loaded and left the harbor, and there are not many follow-up forecast ships. In addition, railway transportation has been restored, and the resources of entering the harbor have begun to increase. At present, the supply and transportation of coal along the coast are not tense, which exerts pressure on the continuous rise of coal prices.

5. The quantity of imported coal in the south is not decreasing.

Despite the state's customs restriction policies on some imported coal, the customs in Guangxi, Zhuhai, Guangzhou, Taiyuan and other places no longer accept customs declarations from other places, and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, the above effects on imported coal are very limited. At present, the quantity of imported coal in southern China is still at a high level, the stock of power plants is quickly replenished, and the sharp rise in domestic coal prices is also curbed.