Short-term strength of polyester industry is not affected by trade frictions

On August 24, the United States announced that it would raise tariff rates on about $550 billion of Chinese imports to the United States, claiming that it would "require American enterprises to leave China". On the evening of August 24, the Tariff and Tax Commission of the State Council issued two major announcements. The two major announcements were mainly aimed at the counter-measures against the 10% tariff imposed by the United States on some 300 billion US dollars of goods imported from China. The first was the decision to impose tariffs on about 75 billion US dollars of imported goods originating from the United States. Second, it decided to impose tariffs on the recovery of automobiles and parts originating in the United States. So far, China, which has been concerned by the market for a long time, has finally taken counter-measures to "land boots".

The announcement by the United States of the increase in tariff rates against China triggered market turmoil in the United States and strong dissatisfaction from all sectors of American society. On that day, the Dow Jones Index fell more than 600 points. "This is a major mistake," the US business community sharply criticized the US position, warning that the escalation of economic and trade frictions will damage American enterprises and the broader economy, while claiming that requiring American enterprises to leave China poses a new threat to US multinationals.

However, the bad news originally thought was rather flat in the domestic commodity market until Monday. The tariff increase in the United States was not once or twice, but sometimes implemented and sometimes postponed. As far as the Chinese market is concerned, it has been able to face it calmly. For the textile market, "one stone" is also difficult to arouse a thousand waves!

1. PTA opened once "flash crash", followed by a rebound to stabilize 5000 points!

We know that macroeconomic and other news aspects have relatively obvious impact on the commodity futures market; but for this wave of tariff rate fluctuations, the whole futures market reverses. Should be more calm. On the PTA futures market, although it was facing a "flash crash" shortly after the opening, it rebounded, and then the market was in a small fluctuation pattern, basically stabilizing 5,000 points. As of the closing date of the 26th, the main 2001 contract closed at 5094 CNY/ton, a slight decrease of 18 CNY/ton, or 0.35%, compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day.

2. Ethylene Glycol, contrary to the "A Dou" normal, has rebounded in terms of supply and demand support!

Recently, polyester industry chain performance is the most "A Dou" of the Ethylene Glycol market, contrary to the normal, has climbed in 26 futures and electronic discs. On the futures side, the main 2001 contract of ethylene glycol closed at 4622 CNY/ton, up 77 CNY/ton, or 1.69 percent, compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day.

This is mainly due to the support of the fundamentals of the ethylene glycol market. Firstly, the supply and demand pattern is in a healthy development. It is known that the start-up rate of ethylene glycol is at a low level near 62%, and there is no limited recovery of domestic supply, while the shipment volume at the main port will remain high, and the overall depot capacity will be around 20-250,000 tons in August-October.

3. The starting rate of weaving is rising and the drop resistance of polyester filament is enhanced.

From the upstream raw material PTA and ethylene glycol, the market of polyester filament must be concerned. In recent years, the mainstream price focus of polyester filament has been relatively stable, and there has not been such a big ups and downs as in the previous period. However, as mentioned in my previous article, the price of polyester filament is now almost at the lowest level in the year, with POY 150D falling below 8,000, while DTY products not only fell below 10,000 yuan, but also close to 9,000; the price gap is more obvious than the previous year. Whether it is FDY, POY or DTY, the price center of gravity of each product generally falls by 28% to 32% year on year. In view of such a sharp decline, it is expected that the price of polyester filament products will fall in a relatively limited space in the short term. In fact, since the middle and late August, the startup rates of several major industrial clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have risen in varying degrees. The general increase in startup rates also means that the demand for raw materials procurement will inevitably exist, which to some extent supports the demand motive force of the Polyester filament market. With the better market expectations, the stock of grey fabrics in the weaving Market decreases as a whole, and some weaving factories naturally take measures to purchase raw materials; in addition, near the end of the month, it is in line with the time node of raw material procurement, and it is expected that the short-term polyester market will usher in a wave of phased procurement operations. Since this year, the production and marketing of polyester filament market has been reflected in pulse mode. The downstream demand has improved moderately, which has a more obvious mitigation effect on polyester manufacturers. Overall, for the polyester market, under the short-term operation of fundamentals, the performance of each product is quite strong; the key to follow-up is to pay attention to the strength of terminal recovery and demand expectations.

As the Ministry of Commerce has announced on its website, China firmly opposes such unilateral and bullying trade protectionism and extreme pressure practices, which violate the consensus of the heads of state of China and the United States, the principle of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit, and seriously undermine the multilateral trading system and the normal international trade order, and will certainly bear its own fruit. China strongly urges the United States not to misjudge the situation, not to underestimate the determination of the Chinese people, and immediately stop the wrong practices, otherwise all consequences will be borne by the United States.