September 30 report:
According to the commodity analysis system, the marine fuel market in East China saw a significant increase in September. As of September 30, the average price of 180CST fuel oil in China was 7637.50 CNY per ton, up 2.59% from 6512.50 CNY per ton on September 1.
In September, China’s 180CST fuel oil prices initially surged before settling into a consolidation phase: during the first half of the month, rising international crude oil prices boosted the Chinese marine fuel market, while higher costs for blended feedstocks provided cost support. Coupled with tight supply conditions, marine fuel prices continued to climb. In the second half of the month, as geopolitical tensions eased and global oil prices declined, blending costs softened; however, pre‑holiday restocking by downstream users kept demand firm, resulting in a generally volatile market. As of September 30, spot quotes for 180CST low‑sulfur fuel oil stood at RMB 7,500–8,000 per ton, while 120CST low‑sulfur fuel oil was quoted at RMB 7,600–8,100 per ton.
In September, international crude oil prices first rose and then fell. During the first half of the month, prices surged largely due to attacks on Saudi Arabia’s east–west oil pipelines, which put pressure on Red Sea exports; unexpected shutdowns at Libyan oilfields further tightened global supply; and mutual strikes on energy infrastructure between Ukraine and Russia heightened concerns about refined‑product supply. In the second half of the month, a confluence of bearish factors—including signs of a resumption in Middle Eastern crude exports, progress in U.S.–Iran indirect talks, and reports that the United States plans to release strategic petroleum reserves—weighed heavily, driving international oil prices sharply lower.
On the international fuel oil front, according to Singapore’s Enterprise Singapore (ESG), as of the week ending September 23, Singapore’s fuel oil inventories fell by 366,000 barrels to a four-week low of 19.778 million barrels; middle distillate stocks declined by 551,000 barrels, reaching a three-week low of 8.13 million barrels; and heavy distillate inventories remained at a four-week low of 19.78 million barrels. Meanwhile, Russian fuel oil shipments have failed to arrive for the twelfth consecutive week.
Market Outlook: On the cost side, international crude oil remains the key influencing factor; if crude prices stay elevated, they will continue to underpin marine fuel prices. In the supply‑to‑shipping market, amid high oil prices, shipowners are likely to adopt a more cautious purchasing stance, prioritizing spot‑based procurement and small‑scale restocking. Post‑holiday, the 180CST fuel oil market is expected to trade mainly in a range at elevated levels.
