The trend of the industry is relatively stable in the second half of the year

The semi-annual reports of listed companies have been disclosed, and many coal enterprises have achieved good results. Among them, Hongyang Energy, Pingdingshan Coal Co., Ltd. and Shanshan Coal International Net Profit increased 172.72%, 91.87% and 53% respectively.

"These coal enterprises'profit increase is generally due to the stable market demand, stable price, productivity growth and cost decline and other reasons." Xing Lei, director of the Research Center of Coal Listed Companies of Central University of Finance and Economics, told the reporter of Securities Daily. Since 2019, the macroeconomic situation has maintained a stable growth, with the value added of industries above scale increasing by 6% year on year in the first half of the year. The stability of industrial production keeps the demand for coal as a basic energy source relatively stable. According to the data released by the National Development and Reform Commission, in the first half of this year, the total output of raw coal of Coal Enterprises above the national scale reached 1.76 billion tons, an increase of 2.6% over the same period last year. China's railway transport of 1.2 billion tons of coal, an increase of 2.3% over the same period last year.

"Coal price index around Bohai Sea ranges from 570 yuan at the beginning of the year to 579 yuan at the end of April and May, with fluctuations not exceeding 10 yuan and fluctuations not exceeding 1.6%. A coal industry expert told the Journal of Securities.

"After the coal industry has removed its capacity, the supply curve moves left and steepens, and the price can be stabilized by a slight increase in demand. In the first half of this year, the government implemented an active fiscal policy, and the economy was stable as a whole, avoiding the risk of stall. The stable demand supported the coal price. Pan Xiangdong, Chief Economist and Managing Director of New Age Securities, told the reporter of Securities Daily.

Xinglei told reporters, "The National Development and Reform Commission requires coal enterprises to speed up the release of high-quality production capacity. Some new coal mines approved by the State have been put into operation one after another, increasing the supply of high-quality coal. The national coal production pattern has changed considerably. The output of large-scale coal mines is close to 80%. These large-scale coal mines have good quality and low cost. Make the coal enterprise benefit increase.

"In the first half of the year, the environmental protection policy continued to be implemented, and the import of overseas coal was limited, so the overall coal supply decreased. The supply is reduced and the demand is stable, which makes some domestic coal enterprises show good performance.

According to the statistics of the Journal of Securities, of the 35 coal enterprises that have disclosed their semi-annual reports, 22 have increased their business income year on year.

"The overall trend of coal industry will remain relatively stable in the second half of this year, but uncertainties will also grow, especially the uncertain impact of changes in the external economic and trade environment on China's industry. At the same time, the situation of relatively loose supply, adequate inventory and continuous increase in imports may cause the market bearish sentiment to continue to increase, which may have a certain negative impact on the development of coal listed companies. Xing Lei told reporters.

"In the second half of the year, the dynamic coal plate is better." Peng Xin, chief researcher of Tianfeng Securities Coal, told Securities Daily that "the price of power coal will rise in the second half of the year, but combined with the fact that the downstream power plants have maintained high inventory since 2019, the demand for replenishing inventory has been weak, and it is expected that it will be difficult to achieve a larger increase. The overall price of coking coal is relatively stable, and it is difficult to find better investment opportunities in the second half of the year when the supply and demand are weak. Coke is greatly affected by upstream and downstream, price fluctuation is running, and industry uncertainty is high.

He further told reporters that in the second half of the year, power coal, coking coal and coke are expected to be subject to environmental safety inspection and supply restrictions. In the long run, the rising demand for replenishment inventory of power plants in the lower reaches before winter will also drive up the price of power coal. In addition, tightening import policy will also reduce coal supply. In terms of regional transportation dispatching, the opening of the Menghua Railway will facilitate the transfer of coal from Shaanxi Province to the two lakes and one river area, and will benefit the local demand for production.

"In the long run, China's position as the world's largest manufacturer will not change, and China's industrial production will not decline significantly, which is a good factor for the future of the coal industry in macro-economy." Xing Lei said that the sustained and stable economic growth will continue to bring about stable growth of energy demand. Coal, as the largest basic energy source in China, will not change its status although the demand will decline. Coal, as the most reliable guarantee of energy security in China, will not shake.