BDO market in China operates steadily

October 24th News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from October 20 to 24, China’s BDO price remained steady at 7,465 CNY per ton, marking a month-on-month decline of 0.76% and a year-on-year drop of 6.34%. The Chinese BDO market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with ongoing operational fluctuations in production facilities. Meanwhile, the industry’s capacity utilization rate remains low, and companies continue to face persistent losses, prompting suppliers to adopt more cautious pricing strategies amid tightening supply policies. Downstream contract negotiations are gradually picking up, while spot purchases remain sluggish as buyers remain wary of higher prices. As a result, the delicate balance between supply and demand continues to fuel volatile market conditions, making it challenging for prices to stabilize.

Supply side, in terms of facilities, the Junzheng and Xin Ye Phase I plants have restarted, and the Shaanxi Heimao plant is operating at a slightly higher load. However, the Shuguang Lvhua plant has been temporarily shut down. The industry's capacity utilization rate remains low, and there is still support from the supply side. There are potential positive factors that could impact BDO supply.

Statistics on the operational status of equipment at selected manufacturing facilities:

Cost Perspective:
Regarding raw material calcium carbide, China's calcium carbide market remained stable. However, the Inner Mongolia region continues to experience supply instability due to ongoing measures aimed at orderly electricity consumption. Meanwhile, as maintenance shutdowns in downstream regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Ningxia gradually resume, demand from these areas has shown a noticeable uptick.

As for the raw material methanol, the Chinese methanol market has largely settled into a consolidation phase. As of 10:00 PM on October 23, the reference price for methanol in Taicang, China, stood at 2,245 CNY per ton. While calcium carbide prices stayed steady, methanol continued its weak trading pattern. Overall, cost-related factors remain tilted toward a bearish outlook for BDO.

Demand Side: Downstream PTMEG operations saw a slight decline, while industries such as PBT, GBL-NMP, and PBAT experienced increased production loads. As a result, overall downstream demand rose, pushing the market into a supply-constrained situation. The demand side for BDO remains supported by favorable factors.

Future Market Forecast: With no significant changes in the fundamentals, the supply and demand competition is intensifying. BDO analysts predict that the BDO market in China will mainly focus on stabilizing and consolidating.