Recent Domestic LNG Market Prices have been Steadily Declining

Price trend

On May 24, the average price of domestic LNG was 6,666 CNY/ton, down 3.50% from the price of 6,908 CNY/ton on last Tuesday (17th), and up 92.47% compared with the same period last year.

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Recently, the domestic LNG market has been running steadily downward, but the decline is not large, with a decline of more than 3% in 7 days. Led by off-season factors, the market demand is expected to weaken, the trading volume is weak, and the downstream receiving goods is weak. In addition, the price of imported gas has been lowered, which has impacted the domestic market. Although some liquid plants are currently scheduled for maintenance, the supply side has certain advantages, but it is difficult to form an inflection point. , the domestic LNG market is still weak. As of May 24, 6550-6900 CNY/ton in Inner Mongolia, 6670-6850 CNY/ton in Shaanxi, 6610-6900 CNY/ton in Shanxi, 6700-6750 CNY/ton in Ningxia, 7000-7200 CNY/ton in Hebei , Henan area 7000-7200 CNY/ton. The price of the receiving station is about 7350-9200 CNY/ton. China's LNG spot CIF price was $21.93/MMBtu, and the price was lowered.

According to the weekly change from February 28, 2022 to May 22, 2022, it can be seen that the domestic LNG cycle rose and fell, and fell by 14.08% in the week of February 28, and has fluctuated within a narrow range since March. , mainly in the downward direction in May.

Downstream products were mixed:

Methanol, the domestic methanol market was weak and fluctuated within a narrow range. Although the rebound of crude oil in the first half of the week caused methanol futures to rise synchronously and exceeded 2,800 CNY/ton during the session, the rise in supply made the industry's general expectations for the market outlook to be low. At the beginning of the week, the main production companies in the main producing areas raised their ex-factory offers, but the spot purchases were generally popular.

Urea, on May 20, the domestic urea market fell on May 23. The reference price of urea was 3260.00, an increase of 7.03% compared with May 1 (3046.00). Upstream coal and liquefied natural gas prices remained high, with good cost support. From the perspective of demand: the demand for agriculture is general, the demand for compound fertilizer enterprises is general, the plate factory purchases on demand, and downstream customers have a strong wait-and-see attitude towards high-priced urea. From the perspective of supply: there are many urea overhaul manufacturers in May, and the supply of urea is expected to decline. The policy of ensuring supply and price stability remains unchanged.

Market outlook

Liquefied natural gas analysts believe that: at present, the favorable maintenance of some liquid plants has boosted prices in some areas, but the off-season effect is more obvious. Most liquid plants still mainly ship at lower prices. It is expected that domestic liquid prices will continue to stabilize and decline in the short term.