In August, China's export growth slowed down and imports were better

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 8th, in dollar terms, China's exports fell by 1% year-on-year in August, imports by 5.6% year-on-year, and its trade surplus by 34.84 billion US dollars.

Before the release of the data, the median forecast of seven agencies gathering interface news shows that, in dollar terms, China's exports increased by 2.6% in August compared with the same period last year, while imports decreased by 6% compared with the same period last year. Trade frictions are still one of the important factors affecting exports. On August 1, President Trump announced that he planned to impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods on September 1. Subsequently, at the request of U.S. importers, the U.S. government had to postpone 57% of the goods on the list until December 15 to start raising taxes. Analysts point out that the commodities listed in this round of 300 billion US dollars list contain a large number of daily necessities and are highly dependent on China, and the stockpiling peak period of Western importers is before Thanksgiving and Christmas. Therefore, Chinese enterprises still need to evade tariffs and grab exports at this stage. In addition, the devaluation of the RMB also hedges the pressure brought by the intensification of Sino-US trade frictions to a certain extent.

On the import side, the purchasing managers index (PMI) of domestic manufacturing industry dropped 0.2% to 49.5% in August compared with the previous month, which was below the "Kurong Line" for four consecutive months, and the PMI import index dropped 0.7% to 46.7%. All these show that domestic demand is weak.

Looking forward to the future market, analysts believe that based on the weakening manufacturing industry in developed countries, the trend of Sino-US trade frictions and the domestic economic situation, the performance of foreign trade in the third quarter is difficult to say optimistic.

From the perspective of external economy, the global manufacturing industry continues to be in a downward cycle. In August, US manufacturing PMI fell for the fifth consecutive month, from 51.2 in July to 49.1, falling into a contraction range for the first time since September 2016. Although the final value of manufacturing PMI in the euro area rose to 47 in August, it has been below the boom and bust line for seven consecutive months. From the perspective of Sino-US trade, there are big differences between the two sides. The agreement may not be reached in the short term, and the export rush may continue for some time. Analysts also pointed out that South Korea and Vietnam, which have similar export structure with China, have diverged in recent export trends. South Korea's exports have slowed down further, while Vietnam's exports have increased significantly. This means that China's "re-export trade" bypassing Vietnam is increasing, which may be reflected in more parts exports from China to Vietnam. On the domestic side, considering that short-term industrial production activities are difficult to make a significant improvement, the further decline in domestic demand will continue to drag down the growth of imports.

China has filed a lawsuit under the WTO dispute settlement mechanism against the US tariff imposed on US $300 billion of products exported to China. In addition, according to Xinhua News Agency, China and the United States will hold the thirteenth round of high-level economic and trade consultation in Washington in early October. The working levels of the two sides will hold serious consultations in mid-September to make full preparations for substantive progress in the high-level consultations.