Where is the rising trend of power coal going?

Recently, the main coal producing areas in North China have been strongly influenced by environmental protection and safety supervision. Unlike the strong performance of the supply side, the downstream demand side has continued to weaken and the supply and demand sides have strong divergence. At the beginning of this month, due to the rising civil demand, some coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia increased the lump coal price by 10-20 CNY/ton. At the same time, recently, due to the approaching Seventieth Anniversary of Daqing, it has entered the pre-Daqing high-pressure stage. The environmental protection and safety inspection of the main production areas have been strengthened, and coal pipe tickets and pyrotechnics have been increased. There are strict restrictions on species. Coal production in the main northern production areas has been tightened as a whole, supply has been gradually tightened, and pithead coal prices are on the whole. This week, the transaction prices of the three major mainstream mines in northern Shaanxi increased by 5-33 CNY/ton. Now pithead suppliers are in a strong mood because of the favorable factors such as the upcoming maintenance of the Daqin Line and the tightening of production as a whole. On the one hand, the situation of safety supervision in production areas is difficult to loosen in the short term, and the price of pithead coal is affected by the rise. On the other hand, the Daqin Line is about to start the autumn maintenance. The quotation of traders in northern ports is rising. At present, the mainstream quotation of 5000 cards power coal trade in Qinhuangdao Port is 51. 5-520 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton month-on-month. However, due to the downstream demand depression, the pressure of counter-offer sentiment is strong, and the actual volume is limited. Inventory decline in Qinhuangdao Port is mainly due to the weak supply of environmental protection and production restriction in the origin, combined with the low demand of the port, which has a negative impact on the enthusiasm of shipment, and the low-level operation of the Daqin Line.

The downstream demand has not improved yet. The price of coal in the main production area has gone up, while the price of coal in the northern port has gone up. However, the upward influence of the two sides'coal price has not been transmitted to the downstream demand side for the time being, and the performance of the demand side is still unsatisfactory. Since September, key coastal power plants have quickened the pace of de-stocking. At present, the six major coastal power plants have 15,842,500 tons of inventory, a monthly decrease of 109,76,000 tons, a decrease of 6.48%. Although the six major coastal power plants have little effect in inventory removal at this stage, the overall usable days are still at a high level of more than 20 days. At the same time, most coastal and inland power plants adopt inventory strategy, and the replenishment of the warehouse is mainly realized by the Changxie. There are also some power plants with Indonesian coal bidding plan in the near future, and the enthusiasm of domestic coal transportation is limited. In recent years, the daily consumption of six major power plants in coastal areas has increased slightly, but with the decrease of temperature, the daily consumption of power plants has decreased, and it is a big probability event to gradually enter the off-season of coal demand.

In the later period, the security supervision of Daqing will not relax until now. Recently, due to the strong rise in coal prices, the downstream connection mood has further weakened, and the price of pithead power coal will increase slightly in the later period. On the demand side, the six coastal power plants have little effect on inventory removal, which is now close to the same period last year. In order to ensure normal production around the National Day, and according to the high inventory strategy adopted by power plants in recent two years, it is expected that the enthusiasm of coal procurement in the power plant market will be limited in a short time, but in late September there will be a procurement plan to support coastal coal prices.