Power Coal: How far can we go up?

In addition, according to the evaluation of Fenwei Energy's production area on September 12, it is estimated that the cost of transporting power coal (CV5500) from Sanxi area to northern port is 624 yuan for Shanxi coal, 615 yuan for Mongolian coal, 611 yuan for Shanxi coal, 586 yuan for CCI5500 index on September 12, and 38 yuan, 29 yuan and 25 yuan for inverted cost. The average inverted level of shipment increased by 0.34 yuan compared with the previous day.

Looking ahead to the future market, Xinda Securities coal industry analysts Zuo Qianming, Zhou Jie and Wang Zhimin said that in the context of weakening demand, limited supply and declining inventory, coal prices may remain strong. On the one hand, important activities are coming, environmental safety supervision in the main producing areas has been strengthened, some coal mines have controlled the pace of production, and coal prices have stopped falling and rising. In addition, the coal stocks of the six major power plants in the downstream have fallen below 16 million tons, and the hydropower industry is about to enter a period of weakness. Northeast China will start the winter storage and transportation ahead of schedule. Civil lump coal demand will be released and the price will rise slightly. Overlapping the main export railways, centralized maintenance will be gradually carried out in autumn. Under the multi-factor effect, the mood of the producing areas will turn better and the overall situation will be warmer. On the other hand, after autumn, the daily consumption of power plants falls back and the off-season comes. Entering September, the high temperature in most areas of China has disappeared, the demand for refrigeration and electricity has been reduced, and rainwater is more in some areas. The follow-up power plants will welcome unit maintenance, the demand for power coal will gradually transit to the off-season, and the power plants continue to purchase and replenish the reservoir is insufficient. Overall, at this stage, coal supply and demand will shrink synchronously, especially under the expected tightening of the supply of origin, port coal prices may remain strong.

In the downstream, the autumn tiger's power can not be underestimated. The recent rise in temperature in the southern region has led to an increase in electricity load. The daily consumption of the six major power plants along the coast has slowly recovered and maintained at about 700,000 tons. The stock has dropped significantly, falling below 16 million tons. However, the downstream demand market in the late period is more worried because with the gradual weakening of the autumn tiger force and the overall temperature decreasing, it can be predicted that daily consumption will not recover again. In addition, the follow-up power plant unit maintenance, the coming of coal off-season, the enthusiasm of power plants to purchase high-price coal is weak.

As of September 17, the six coastal power plants had 15,764,000 tons in stock, a decrease of 241,000 tons in cycle-to-cycle ratio, an increase of 589,000 tons over the same period of last year; daily coal consumption was 698,000 tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons over the same period of last year, an increase of 130,000 tons over the same period of last year; available days were 226 days, and the cycle-to-cycle ratio was reduced by 0.2 days, a decrease of 41 days over the same period of last year.

A trader in Hebei said that the market was still quiet on the 16th and the demand was low. The open warehouse price index of CV5000 movable coal (S1) was down 5 yuan. The demand for high-calorie coal is very small. It feels that the price is not good to rise. In the short run, some favorable support will make it difficult for the price to fall. For the time being, it is mainly stable. In the later October, the price may fall. From the point of view of the place of production, coal prices in the main producing areas have been rising steadily and moderately in the near future. It is understood that the Yushen area of Shaanxi Province is affected by the Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, and the fire driver's vacation has a certain impact on the pulling and transportation of coal mines. A few coal mines have greater inventory pressure, most coal mines have stable shipments and a small amount of inventory. Miners have a wait-and-see attitude towards the impact of environmental protection and safety inspection on the upstream and downstream, and have no intention to adjust prices for the time being. Because of coal quality, the coal price of Bie Coal Mine has been reduced by 10 yuan per ton.

Ordos area lump coal raw coal sales hot, foam coal prices overall stable, the miners said that at this stage the restrictions on coal pipe tickets are strict, coal supply is tightening, in addition, due to the increase in civil demand and the positive impact of the surrounding coal plant reserve, lump coal on the mine loaded more vehicles, the price of a small increase. Some mines in Jinzhong area of Shanxi Province have strong willingness to reduce prices due to poor shipment, high inventory pressure and strong willingness to reduce prices.