China's first global mining development report predicts that iron ore prices

At the 21st China International Mining Conference, the International Mining Research Center of the China Geological Survey of the Ministry of Natural Resources announced its establishment and released the Global Mining Development Report 2019 (hereinafter referred to as the Report) on the spot, according to China Iron and Steel News Network. The report is the first report issued by China on the global mining development trend. Based on massive data, it comprehensively analyses the global mining development trend from 2018 to 2019 from the aspects of mining market, supply and demand pattern of mineral resources, development of mining companies, mining policy trends of major countries, and development of mining science and technology, and makes a preliminary forecast of the future industry pattern.

The report holds that mining industry is playing an increasingly prominent role in global economic and social development. In 2018, mining industry provided 22.7 billion tons of energy, metals and important non-metallic minerals for mankind, with a total output value of $5.9 trillion, equivalent to 6.9% of global GDP. Among them, the output value of energy mining industry is 4.5 trillion US dollars, accounting for 76% of the world's total output value of mining industry.

The Report points out that in 2019, iron ore prices rose all the way as other commodity prices fell. The average import price of 62% grade iron ore in China exceeded 110 US dollars/ton, and then quickly fell to about 90 US dollars/ton. In the future, with stable supply and slowing demand for iron ore imports from China, iron ore prices are expected to remain between $60 and $80 per ton.

Developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America have strengthened mining industry to support industrialization, and developed countries in Europe and the United States have strengthened mining industry to support high-end manufacturing industries. Asia's emerging economies have become the global centre of metal mineral consumption. In 2018, China, India, ASEAN and other emerging Asian economies accounted for 59%, 59% and 61% of global consumption of iron, Copper and Aluminium, respectively.

The global mineral market has been shaken and adjusted, and the structure of the mining market has been differentiated. Influenced by supply and demand fundamentals and emergencies in 2019, oil, copper, lithium and cobalt prices overall declined, while iron ore, nickel and gold prices rose sharply. In 2018, global solid mineral exploration investment slowly rebounded, the proportion of large mining companies increased, and the proportion of small and medium-sized exploration companies decreased. The investment in grassroots exploration continued to decline, while the investment in detailed investigation and exploration continued to grow. The proportion of gold, copper and zinc continued to increase, while the proportion of uranium, nickel and diamond continued to decline. At the same time, large mining companies gradually focus on the north and South America, Australia and other regions, greatly reducing investment in exploration in Africa, Southeast Asia and other regions.

International large mining companies are highly financialized and have high-quality global resources. The financial institutions of mining companies in the United States, Australia, Canada, Japan, Brazil and the United Kingdom generally hold more than 50% shares. Of the 2395 listed mining companies in the world, the number of large mining companies accounts for less than 4%, but their market value accounts for nearly 80%. The top ten mining companies in the world account for 82% of iron ore, 60% of Bauxite, 46% of copper, 42% of nickel, 96% of platinum, 94% of palladium and 85% of uranium.

The slowdown of global economic growth has prompted large international mining companies to strengthen risk control and promote strategic adjustment and transformation and development. Large international mining companies continue to strip off non-core projects, focusing on projects with good endowment, low cost and abundant cash flow, distributing anti-cycle and anti-risk minerals such as gold and copper, as well as clean energy minerals such as platinum and lithium, and stripping traditional minerals such as coal. Some large international mining companies have gradually reduced their investment in exploration and development in Africa, Southeast Asia and other regions, returning to Australia, the Americas and other regions.

Major countries and regions should speed up the adjustment of mining policies and promote global resource governance. The United States has basically achieved energy independence and is accelerating the security of key mineral resources supply and promoting global resource governance. Europe strengthens the development of mineral resources in the region, and strengthens the safe supply of key raw materials and global resource management. Canada and Australia promote green mining and improve the quality and efficiency of mining development. Indonesia, Congo (DRC) and other Asian and African countries extend the mining industry chain and strengthen local mining rights and interests by adjusting tax and fee policies.

Scientific and technological innovation is leading the transformation and upgrading of traditional mining industry and accelerating its development towards green, safe, intelligent and efficient direction. Large data, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, mobile interconnection and other modern information technologies have begun to integrate with the development of mining industry. Intelligent exploration, intelligent mining, mining Internet of Things and other rapid rise.

The report predicts that in the short term, the slowdown of global economic growth, Global trade frictions, geopolitical conflicts and other factors will increase the uncertainty of global mining development, and the mining market will continue to shake and adjust. In the long run, China's demand for mineral resources will remain at a relatively high level. Demand for mineral resources in India, ASEAN and other countries and regions will continue to grow. Consumption of mineral resources in other developing countries will also continue to grow, which is expected to drive the sustainable development of global mining industry.

The report also believes that economic restructuring, energy independence of the United States, response to global climate change, and accelerate the restructuring of the global energy pattern. Global energy consumption presents a pattern of "three parts of the world". The United States will become an important oil and gas exporter after the Middle East and Russia. Climate change has accelerated the restructuring of global energy consumption. In the future, the proportion of coal, oil, natural gas and non-fossil energy consumption will be divided into four parts.

The report also introduces mining robots, waste-free mining technology, new iron ore anhydrous beneficiation technology, magnetic resonance ore sorting sensor system, driverless mining vehicle, mine Internet of Things technology, mining.