June 24 news
Price Trend
According to SpotCom data, in the second half of June, the Chinese PC market continued to decline, with a significant decrease in spot prices for various grades. As of June 24, the benchmark price for PC blends was around 13,400 CNY/ton, representing a 16.42% decrease from the beginning of the month.
Reason Analysis
Supply Side: In the latter half of June, the operating rates of China's PC polymerization enterprises continued to recover. The facilities of Shanghai Mitsubishi and Pingmei Shenma gradually restarted, with the overall industry load rate recovering to around 70%, and there are still plans for the return of polymer plant capacities. Production losses gradually decreased, with the weekly average output returning to 60,000 tons. The smoothness of shipments from polymer plants declined, and the willingness to maintain prices weakened. Overall, the support from the supply side for PC is showing a weakening trend.
Regarding Raw Materials: As shown in the chart above, China’s bisphenol A market remained flat at a low level in June. International crude oil prices plummeted sharply, while the prices of acetone and phenol—both key raw materials—experienced either significant declines or volatile fluctuations. Meanwhile, the supply of bisphenol A remained relatively stable, and demand continued to be weak and driven by basic needs. Although spot prices have reached a temporary low following the decline earlier this month, positive market signals have been scarce. The market remains stuck in a stalemate, accompanied by slightly bearish expectations, resulting in generally weak support for polycarbonate (PC) costs.
Demand Side: Sales at downstream PC factories are at off-season levels, with demand for sheet materials and casings softening. End-user enterprises are operating at low utilization rates. Currently, PC prices are rising rapidly, prompting traders to chase upward trends while also cutting losses when prices fall—a pattern that has intensified market uncertainty and vigilance. Buyers are being cautious about stocking up and show little willingness to build positions. The liquidity of supply has slowed down, and merchants are adjusting their quotes according to market conditions, increasingly resorting to price concessions to secure orders. Low-priced supplies on the market remain to be absorbed, exerting downward pressure on polymer manufacturers’ pricing benchmarks. Overall, demand-side support for PC spot prices is weak.
Future Market Forecast
At the end of June, the Chinese PC market experienced a significant downturn. Upstream bisphenol A prices remained stable at low levels, making it difficult for cost values to support PC. The operating rates of Chinese PC polymerization plants continued to increase, with expectations of further supply relaxation. Market transactions were mainly driven by weak rigid demand, cautious inventory buildup, and mostly small orders. Currently, with increased supply and weak demand for PC, and expectations of softer costs, the market sentiment is negative, and there is a risk of further price declines in the short term.
Technical Analysis
Analysts believe that according to SpotCom, on June 1st, the 10-day moving average of PC crossed below the 20-day moving average. Supporting indicators show that the PC price is at a low level across all five tiers. The spread is showing a trend of negative expansion, indicating a short-term downward trend, with significant resistance to spot price increases. It is recommended to closely monitor the fundamental situation of PC in the future.
