Ups and downs of coal price in the first half of the year

In the first half of this year, coal prices in the port market fluctuated and basically kept a W-shaped fluctuation. In the second half of the year, since July, the market situation is not optimistic, and the port coal price has basically declined all the way; so far, the coal price has fallen below 560 CNY/ton. In the first half of the year, from the perspective of coal demand, the coal throughput of ports around the Bohai Sea maintained a year-on-year growth trend. From the perspective of port coal price, in the first half of the year, China's coal price around the Bohai Sea fluctuated greatly; due to the impact of increasing coal inspection efforts on Australia and limiting the import of coal, domestic high-quality resources were in short supply, and the market coal price remained high. In addition, due to the change of the Bohai Sea port inventory and the periodic replenishment of the power plant, the coal price fluctuates greatly, but basically keeps the W-type fluctuation.

In the first half of the year, the trading price of coal in the Bohai Sea port market was between 585-634 CNY/ton, and the average price has exceeded 600 CNY/ton. On April 11, during the centralized maintenance period of Daqin line, the port coal price even soared to 634 CNY/ton. In the first half of the year, when the inventory of Qin port decreased and the power plant replenished, the port market coal price rose; when the power plant replenishment ended and the Bohai port inventory picked up, the coal price fell. In terms of imported coal, due to the impact of increased inspection efforts, Australia's coal clearance time was extended, and imported coal could not enter China smoothly. The number of imported coal was basically the same as that of the same period last year, with a slight decline in some months. In the first half of the year, China imported 150 million tons of coal, an increase of only 8.3 million tons on a year-on-year basis; the amount of coal imported from the South accounted for 24.5% of the total amount of coal transferred by sea. The share of imported coal is moderate, which has little impact on the domestic coal market. The coastal power plants mainly rely on domestic coal, supplemented by imported coal and market coal. In addition, in the first half of the year, the power plant inventory is in the stage of slow recovery and accumulation of inventory, and the coastal coal market is relatively active. The port market coal price operation is on the high side, most of the time in the blue area required by the state, which is also close to the cost price of the coal delivered by the traders, which is profitable; the coal price operation conforms to the market law of "good demand, rising demand, poor demand, falling".

In the second half of the year, the coal market changed dramatically. Both domestic and foreign production increased, the increase of coal supply exceeded the increase of downstream demand, which increased the pressure of supply exceeding demand in the coal market; the inventory of shipping port, power plant and unloading port was on the high side, and the pressure of coal price decline increased. In the third quarter, China imported 96.11 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 13.29 million tons. In order to reduce the purchase cost, the user made every effort to purchase low-cost imported coal and reduce the number of domestic coal haulage, resulting in a decrease in the number of coal railway and port shipments, and the poor transportation of coal from north to south. The price of domestic coal has plummeted all the way, and the closing price of power coal in 5500 calories market has dropped from 614 CNY/ton in early July to 558 CNY/ton at present. In November, the market showed no signs of improvement, and the port coal price continued to fall. According to the analysis of the actual situation such as increasing social inventory pressure and sluggish demand, it is expected that the coal price will continue to decline in the first and middle of November. At the end of November, with the increase of heating load in winter and the increase of coal consumption, the coal market will turn around, and the coal price is expected to stop falling and stabilize. Of course, we should pay attention to the coal import policy and the change of coal consumption in power plants.