The trend of power coal also depends on the negotiation

Since October, the port power coal price has ended more than a month of consolidation and continued to fall. In late October, the 5500k closing price index of northern port of easy coal fell below the average long-term cooperative price of 570 CNY/ton in October, and then continued to decline. As of October 30, the 5500k closing price index of northern port of easy coal closed at 564 CNY/ton, down 18 CNY/ton, or 3.1% from the end of September. The chart shows the trend of coal index. From the market changes in October, we can see that although the overall decline of the market price is relatively slow, it did not hesitate at the average price of the long-term cooperation in October, and directly broke down, all the way down. This is due to the end of the National Day holiday, weak demand side hit market confidence. " Yang Jie, researcher of Coal Research Institute, said in an interview that after the National Day holiday, with the support of heating purchase, part of the coal price rose slightly for a period of time, the overall coal price ran smoothly, and the recent price fell rapidly. This week, the price of some coal mines fell by 50-60 CNY/ton, some coal mines had top warehouses, and some large mines had serious bidding flow standards. He said that the fall of mine mouth price reflected the end of winter coal storage procurement, while the purchase flow to the port continued to be sluggish, and the demand support for mine mouth was no longer supported.

Power plant inventory will continue to rise, and the winter storage market has been difficult to expect. " According to Yang Jie's analysis, from the perspective of power plant inventory, the inventory of key power plants and six coastal power plants has recovered. As of October 30, the inventory of six coastal power plants totaled 16.5492 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%. As of October 28, the inventory of key power plants has reached a new high of 94.46 million tons, 1.14 million tons more than the maximum inventory of 93.32 million tons in 2018. With the current inventory level and daily consumption, the normal long-term cooperative procurement of the power plant has been able to meet the demand, and the storage space is limited. Beigang's inventory has climbed to about 25 million tons, and even if coastal power plants speed up the warehouse lifting, the supply side will be ample.

The voice right of the demand side is continuously improved, and the bargaining power of the power plant is naturally improved. "Judging from the recent purchase volume and price of the power plant, the bidding price of the power plant is seriously depressed, and the willingness of traders to ship is strong, and low-cost bidding frequently occurs," Yang Jie told reporters The figure shows the trend of port inventory around the Bohai Sea. The figure shows the annual comparison of key power plant inventory Yang Jie said that on October 25, the news that the customs clearance policy of some ports in South China was tightened came out, and the night trading 2001 contract jumped to 565 CNY/ton at one time, but the action force on Monday was insufficient, and on Tuesday began to accelerate the decline. From the movement of the spot market, we can see that all parties reacted calmly to the news. In his opinion, on the one hand, the tightening of customs clearance policies of individual ports has not spread to the whole country, and the customs policies of East China and other regions have not changed. On the other hand, as the end of the year approaches, the impact of import restriction policy is limited in the context of weak overall supply and demand.

In this year, the national development and Reform Commission has taken a series of measures to reduce the general industrial and commercial electricity price, and proposed that the benchmark feed in tariff of coal power should be changed to "benchmark price + fluctuation" from next year to ensure that the average industrial and commercial electricity price will only fall but not rise, and will not rise temporarily in 2020. Yang Jie said that although the policy has not been formally implemented, it has affected the current market, and all parties in the market generally expect that the price focus will further move down in the future. At the same time, the policy will further increase the difficulty of power plant operation. The power plant will probably take measures such as increasing the proportion of imported coal procurement, striving for the price preference negotiated by the Coal Power Association, etc. to strengthen the control of coal procurement cost. Therefore, the upcoming coal electricity long term agreement negotiation will have a greater impact on the market situation starting in November. " Yang Jie said so.