Whether the coal price bottoms and rebounds when the warm winter season comes

Since the weekend, the domestic power coal market has continued to operate in a weak way. The coal price of the production area is still mainly falling. The port coal price continues to explore. The situation of replenishment of the lower reaches of the month predicted in the early stage is not obvious, and the overall market is in a downward state. In addition, the recent production accidents of the production area of coal mines occur one after another, the safety and environmental protection inspection in the later stage is increasingly strict, and the market mentality is different for the future market. In terms of producing areas, the sales of coal mines in the producing areas are generally poor, and the civil demand and freight cost support the coal price. However, with the continuous decline of port market, the sales in the producing areas are not optimistic, and most of the coal mines are facing inventory pressure. In recent years, environmental protection inspection is frequent in Shaanxi, sales and transportation are affected, coal price has fallen more than 10-30 CNY/ton since the weekend. At present, coal price of surface coal has fallen below 400 CNY/ton, only part of coal mine sales have improved after the general drop, the overall market presents a low puzzle, and most of them are pessimistic about the future market. Inner Mongolia coal market is slightly divided, but the overall situation is prolonged Continued to decline, the civil demand led to a correction in lump coal, but the sale of fine coal was average, generally down 10 CNY/ton.

The overall coal market in northern Shanxi Province is in a weak and stable state, and the coal price is temporarily stable after being lowered. Affected by the port market, the trade shipment of market households is low, and the coal price shows signs of falling. Import coal policy has always been the focus of market attention, especially in the recent domestic market coal price continued to decline, and the gap between import coal price and import coal price further reduced, the trend of import coal policy can more affect the domestic coal market. From the current import volume in the first nine months, it is difficult to achieve the goal of this year's horizontal control, and the later import coal policy is expected to tighten. Recently, the market heard that Fuzhou port and Guangzhou port restricted the import of coal, but at present, Fuzhou port can still declare customs in other places, and the port operation is still normal; the import quota of Guangzhou port still exists, which has limited impact on the market in a short time, but only improves the market sentiment. In the later stage, with the disappearance of the advantage of imported coal price difference and the opening of policy restrictions, the domestic coal price is expected to reach the bottom and stabilize. In terms of ports, at present, the price of power coal in northern ports has fallen to the lowest level since this year, dropping by about 100 CNY/ton year on year, keeping a declining state. Now, the mainstream price of 5500 kcal power coal is 563-568 CNY/ton, and the price of 5000 kcal power coal is 493-498 CNY/ton. Traders generally reflect that the current shipment is seriously hung upside down and the sales are not good. Although there is a tightening of imports in the market, there is no obvious impact at present, and there is no sign of improvement in the short-term port market. In the early stage, with the closure of the recent gale, the port inventory has picked up again.

As of October 29, the total inventory of the four ports around Bohai Sea reached 26.129 million tons. On the downstream side, the daily consumption of six coastal power plants has declined recently, and the available days of inventory have risen to more than 28 days. Based on the current high inventory, the purchase of power plants mainly relies on long-term cooperative coal, and the market demand for coal purchase is low. As of October 30, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.549 million tons, with a rise of 491000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, a year-on-year increase of 428000 tons; the daily coal consumption was 579000 tons, with a decrease of 28000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, a year-on-year increase of 9.1 tons; the available days were 28.6 days, with a rise of 2.2 days in the weekly to environmental ratio, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5 days. As a whole, with the release of high-quality production capacity, coal production has increased significantly, the overall supply is loose, coupled with the increase in the number of imported coal and the impact of clean energy, the demand for coal is weak, and the domestic power coal market is not optimistic. However, at present, the domestic coal price has been close to the bottom, the advantage of imported coal price has been gradually reduced, coupled with some port customs clearance signs of tightening and restrictions The impact of imported coal on the price is made, and this series supports the price of coal. In November, after the market enters the winter storage and heating season, the demand is expected to pick up, and the power coal market is expected to pick up.