How will the price trend of short-term power coal be interpreted?

At present, the impact of import policy has not yet stimulated large-scale market coal bidding of power plants, and the market sentiment has returned to flat, with insufficient upward momentum. At the same time, the market price has fallen to a quite low level. Under the background of import policy and the coming of heating season, traders are not willing to further reduce prices. Generally speaking, the domestic market may have some support in the short term under the influence of winter weather, import restrictions and other factors. However, due to the short time of import restrictions, coupled with loose domestic supply and high downstream inventory, the strength of support is limited. It is expected that the price of short-term power coal will fluctuate mainly in a stable, medium and small range. In terms of the latest market, on the 18th, the port's inquiry was dominated by medium and low calorific value coal, while the inquiry of high calorific value coal was less and the downstream counter-offer was low. Although the temperature dropped, the coal consumption did not increase significantly, and the market wait-and-see increased. At present, there are some differences in the price of counter-offer offered by the supply and demand side, and the transaction is deadlocked.

In terms of imported coal, the inquiry of imported coal is rare, the transaction is cold, and the quotation of foreign mines is falling. Market participants believe that with the tightening of domestic import policy, the price of imported coal will further fall. At present, Indonesia (cv3800) boat fob33.5 US dollars, Australia coal (cv5500) reported fob51 US dollars. On November 18, the price of CCI power coal in the latest phase of China's coal resources network showed that the price of cci5500 power coal was 549 CNY/ton. After seven phases of stable operation, the price of cci5500 power coal decreased by 1 CNY/ton again slightly, 27 CNY/ton or 4.7% lower than that of the same period last month. The price of cci5000 power coal was 484 CNY/ton, which was the same as that of the previous period, 22 CNY/ton or 4.3% lower than that of the same period last month. "On the 18th, the port market did not change much. The price of cv5500 high calorie coal was around 550 yuan. The price of single low water and low sulfur coal (cv5000, s0.6) was high, about 490 yuan. The downstream counter price was 486 yuan. The import of coal has just begun to be restricted, and the daily consumption will also increase in December. However, due to the high inventory, the price in December is not expected to fluctuate greatly, or mainly to stabilize. "

A trader in Hebei recently said. In terms of the downstream, with the weather becoming cooler, the coal consumption load of the downstream power plant has slightly increased, but it is still relatively low, the terminal inventory is high, the procurement enthusiasm is not high, and only conventional procurement is maintained. In the middle of November, the national key power plant inventory has reached 98 million tons, which is also a historical high, and can meet the normal consumption of winter peak, so the demand will not be significantly supported. As of November 18, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.856 million tons, with a weekly to environmental ratio increase of 317000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 683000 tons; the daily coal consumption was 591000 tons, with a weekly to environmental ratio increase of 3000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4 tons; the available days were 28.5 days, with a weekly to environmental ratio increase of 0.4 days, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2 days. Since this year, due to the increase of clean energy and extra high voltage power transmission, Zhejiang and other places have taken "double control measures" to reduce the pressure on thermal power in coastal areas; in addition, due to the tightening of external environment, high energy consuming enterprises have not started work enough and the demand for coal has declined.

In addition, the impact of imported coal on the coastal market has increased the pressure of oversupply in the domestic market. Although the coal inventory of the power plant is relatively high, some small and medium-sized power plants have been passively hauled for a period of time before, and the coal storage has declined. At present, the enthusiasm of hauling will be improved, the number of ships Hauling Coal to the port will increase, and the coal price will be supported to a certain extent. In terms of origin, the terminal demand is weak, and the coal price of origin is under pressure. The price of high calorific value coal in Ordos, Inner Mongolia, fell steadily, the sales of low calorific value coal in some mines improved, and the price increased by a small margin. As a whole, the enthusiasm of downstream customers was not high, the demand for some coal blending was fair, and the coal mine still had certain inventory pressure. Yulin coal price is relatively stable as a whole, with a few coal prices rising or falling by about 10 yuan. Overall, downstream demand has not improved significantly. Customers wait and see the procurement is slow, and coal mine inventory pressure still exists, which is not optimistic about the future. The price of raw coal in Shanxi Jinbei coal mine continued to decline, the demand for coal blending in power plants was general, the situation of coal mine delivery was poor, and there was still some pressure of price reduction in the later stage.