Ethanol Market Prices Fluctuate Narrowly

September 26, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from September 19 to 26, the price of ethanol in China was 5,550 CNY/ton, a 1.10% decrease from the previous period and a 4.08% decline year-over-year. In some areas, due to pre-holiday stocking by downstream buyers, there was a slight increase in the transaction prices of corn ethanol. In regions with significant logistics restrictions, the main consumption was of local supplies, leading to minor fluctuations in the market.

Cost Perspective: From the cost side, new grain is gradually entering the market, leading to regionally varying price trends across different areas. Meanwhile, ethanol costs are having a mixed impact—both positive and negative.

Supply side, Heilongjiang Hongzhan Huinan is operating normally, Jixian's production line is in operation, Lahar has reduced production, Bayan is in production, Zhongke Green is shut down, Shenglong's facility is operating normally with plans to switch lines in October, Wanli Pujie and anhydrous lines are in production. In Jilin, Dongfeng has stopped operations, Fukang's third and fourth lines are in production, Yushu's facility is in production, Xintianlong's facility is in production. In Inner Mongolia, Baiyecheng's facility is in production. In Henan, Houyuan's facility is in production, Hanyong's facility is operating normally, while Huaxing's facility is shut down. Sichuan Hongzhan has stopped operations, Qufeng in Shandong is in production, and in East China, Huating, Longhe, Guannan Xin Guan, and Luomait are in production. Wanshen in Anhui is in production, and COFCO is converting from edible to fuel ethanol. The impact on the ethanol supply side is mixed.

On the demand side, terminal demand has improved, with solvent and downstream industries increasing their operating rates. Baijiu (Chinese liquor) factories may also ramp up production, leading to higher ethanol consumption. Additionally, pre-holiday stocking demand for food-grade ethanol is on the rise. Overall, these factors point to a relatively positive outlook for ethanol demand.

Due to the impact of pre-holiday inventory preparation, factories are actively shipping goods. Ethanol analysts predict that the short-term ethanol market trend in China is expected to rise.