It is difficult to cover up the downturn for the coastal coal market

In December, due to the increase of civil power load, the weakening of hydropower operation and other factors, the pressure of thermal power in South China increased, and the increase of coal demand was expected. The market turned better, but it was too late to cover up the downturn in the second half of this year and to reverse the unfavorable situation of coal shipping deficit in the Bohai Rim port. High inventory needs to be consumed. In December, it is in the stage of consumption inventory. The high inventory of downstream power plants, loading and unloading ports and coal storage bases needs to be consumed. At the end of the year, the import of coal is limited, the daily consumption of power plants increases sharply, and the domestic market situation turns better; however, most of the domestic power plants are in a state of high storage, and the southern loading and unloading ports and coal storage bases are all in a state of high storage, the power plants do not need to purchase a large amount of coal in the north, and the coastal coal transportation activity is limited. In December, imported coal will arrive in Hong Kong. Although the quota of imported coal is exhausted and the restrictions are tightened, and some customs have suspended the customs clearance and berthing of imported coal, some power plants are still importing coal, which greatly reduces the restrictions on imported coal; it is expected that the import will still reach more than 15 million tons in December, and the coal consumption of domestic power plants will not be tense. The price of coal will not rise significantly.

The coal delivery rate of the main coal enterprises is improved and the supply is timely; in addition, the port and railway are speeding up the shipment, the coal transportation is loose, and the downstream users are not short of coal. The realization rate of Changxie coal is relatively high, most power plants purchase on demand spot, and the market coal supply and demand continue to show a double low trend, which makes the coal price not rise sharply; it is expected that in December, the coal price will rise by 10-20 CNY/ton. However, it is difficult to cover up the depressed coastal coal market. In December, it is expected that the enthusiasm of power plant transportation will increase, but it is too late. The coastal coal transportation market is temporarily active, which is difficult to cover up the downturn and transportation deficit in the second half of the year. Although the railway and port speed up the shipment and try their best to catch up with the production progress, the negative growth of coal transportation on the Daqin line and the ports around the Bohai Sea has become a foregone conclusion, and the last month is in the state of pit filling. In January next year, imported coal will continue to enter the domestic market. In December this year, the import of coal was tightened, customs clearance and unloading were limited, and some imported coal was delayed to enter the domestic market in January next year; therefore, in December this year, the number of imported coal will be significantly reduced. Once entering January next year, a large number of imported coal waiting for customs declaration will flow in to supplement the domestic market. Therefore, most of the power plants are not in a hurry to pull a large number of coal to replenish the storage, but passively pull and transport, and purchase sporadic market coal.