Narrow Fluctuations in the MTBE Market in November in China

November 28 news

According to the commodity market analysis system, the MTBE market in China fluctuated and declined in November. From November 1st to 28th, the price of MTBE rose first and then fell from 4,920 CNY/ton to 4,925 CNY/ton, with a price fluctuation of 0.10% during the period, and the maximum fluctuation range was 1.94%. The price fell by 9.22% year-on-year.

After entering November, the Chinese MTBE market continued to show a narrow range of fluctuations. In the first ten days of the month, prices slightly declined and adjusted. The presence of many manufacturers exporting to ports provided some support to the market. In the middle of the month, prices slightly rebounded due to periodic restocking by end-users. In the latter part of the month, the market showed a slight downward trend, with weak gasoline demand negatively impacting the market. However, with significant exports, manufacturers were keen to maintain prices. Overall, the market fluctuations were limited, with prices mainly showing minor and sporadic adjustments within a small range.

MTBE China production price average trend chart:

Cost Perspective: In November, international crude oil prices showed a downward trend, with the average price falling compared to October. In the first half of the month, as the market weighed the risks of oversupply and anticipated that the U.S. government shutdown would soon end—boosting economic and demand prospects—international oil prices rose. In the middle of the month, the U.S. proposed a new plan to restart peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, easing geopolitical risk concerns and causing international oil prices to fall. In the latter half of the month, reports emerged that Ukraine had agreed to the U.S.-proposed new peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, further easing geopolitical anxieties and leading to another drop in international oil prices.

Demand Side: On the gasoline terminal demand front, rigid demand remains low. However, in certain regions—such as Shandong—gasoline prices have fallen to low levels, which has boosted end-users’ willingness to enter the market. Some companies may even plan to bring forward their purchases, leading to an increase in forward orders and providing some support for raw material costs. The demand side for MTBE is also influenced by relatively positive factors.

Supply side, within the month, Lihuayi's dehydrogenation unit started operation, Bingu New Materials briefly started and then stopped, Ningbo Haode underwent plant maintenance, while other manufacturers mostly maintained normal operations, leading to an overall increase in resource supply. The overall MTBE supply situation in China is affected by bearish factors.

As of November 28, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected production enterprises:

As of the close on November 27, the Asian MTBE market closed at a price that was up $9.94 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices ranging from $645.02 to $647.02 per ton. In the European MTBE market, closing prices fell by $1.75 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB ARA prices ranging from $764.74 to $765.24 per ton. The U.S. MTBE market is closed in observance of Thanksgiving.

Market Outlook Supply pressure still exists, and terminal demand remains relatively flat. MTBE analysts believe that there is still a possibility of a decline in the Chinese MTBE market.