The short-term weak balance pattern of transaction deadlock in coal market

The short-term weak balance pattern will continue. At present, the power plant inventory is still at a high level, and the state of "actively eliminating the storage and passively replenishing the storage" will continue. However, in 2020, the bidding for imported coal has been opened in succession, the procurement in the north is not active, and the market coal price is under pressure. Some analysts pointed out that, on the whole, the market is still in a state of long short weak balance, with insufficient upward and downward trend line power, and the short-term weak balance pattern will continue. At present, the power plant inventory is still at a high level, and the state of "actively eliminating the storage and passively replenishing the storage" continues. However, in 2020, the bidding for imported coal has been opened in succession, and the procurement in the north is not active, and the market coal price is under pressure. Some analysts pointed out that, on the whole, the market is still in a state of long short weak balance, with insufficient upward and downward trend line power, and the short-term weak balance pattern will continue. Under the current situation, from December to January next year, the purchase of power plants is limited, so a clear price decline requires that traders are willing to ship at a low price, while a trend rise requires a substantial shortage at the supply side or an extreme situation at the demand side.

In terms of the latest market, on November 11, the northern port market as a whole asked for less goods, the upstream quotation was more stable, the downstream price was lower, and the overall market transaction was deadlocked. On November 11, the mainstream price of cv5500 was RMB 545-550, and the mainstream price of cv5000 was RMB 485-490. On December 11, the price of CCI power coal in the latest phase of China coal resources network showed that the price of cci5500 power coal was 548 CNY/ton, which was the same as that of the previous phase, 2 CNY/ton or 0.4% lower than that of the same period last month; the price of cci5000 power coal was 486 CNY/ton, which was the same as that of the previous phase, which was 6 CNY/ton or 1.3% higher than that of the same period last month. "In recent days, there are still some demands in the downstream, most of which are received by Changxie. Due to the high overall cost of the market coal, the downstream counter-offer is low, and the trading volume is rare," said a trader in Zhejiang. The price of Shanxi coal (cv5500, S1) rises by 4 yuan according to the index, mainly sold to the downstream cement plant, and the price of low sulfur and low ash coal (cv5000, s0.4) rises by 4 yuan according to the index. In terms of imported coal, recently, the external quotation was relatively stable, and the freight increased steadily. The price of Indonesian coal (cv3800) was about 34.5 US dollars, and the price of cv5500 was fob51.5-52 US dollars. According to domestic traders, the price of Indonesian coal (cv3800) is still around us $fob34.50. (cv3400) quoted fob29 USD. Australian coal this week almost no inquiry, (cv5500) offer fob51.5-52 US dollars. At present, there is no advantage in Australian coal price. According to the domestic trend in the later period, if there is an increase expected, there may be some demand for Australian coal.

Downstream, as of December 12, the inventory of six major coastal power plants was 16.589 million tons, with a decrease of 332000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, a year-on-year decrease of 1.056 million tons; the daily coal consumption was 740000 tons, with an increase of 10000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, a year-on-year decrease of 2000 tons; the available days were 22.4 days, with a decrease of 0.8 days and a decrease of 1.4 days in the same ratio. In terms of production area, analysts believe that the coal mines that have basically completed the annual task in the main production area will stop production and limit production one after another near the end of the year. In addition, the general situation of land sales and the poor demand for underground coal will affect the coal price in the main production area of Sanxi, which is basically down. The market as a whole has a poor enthusiasm and a strong sense of pessimism. In terms of the latest market in the production area, the demand in the downstream is stable, and the price of pithead coal is stable with small fluctuation. The price of coal in Ordos area, Inner Mongolia, is stable and fluctuated. In the near future, the demand for civil chemical industry is general, the shipment of water coal in large groups is normal, while the purchase of small traders is reduced, the inventory of some coal mines with price increase in the early stage is increased, and the price is slightly reduced. The coal price in Yulin, Shaanxi Province is relatively stable as a whole. At the end of the year, the output of some coal mines decreased, the demand for bulk coal of coal plant users decreased, and the supply and demand weakened. The miner expects that the short-term price increase will not be strongly supported, and the price will be stable temporarily. The price of coal in Shanxi is temporarily stable. Some of the mines are shut down due to safety inspection, supply is reduced and inventory is reduced.