GDP growth may reach the expected CPI growth rate and be controllable

2019 has just passed, and people from all walks of life are full of expectations for the final performance of China's economy. According to the newly released schedule of 2020 economic data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the economic data of 2019 will be released on January 17. Many institutions predict that GDP growth will be "expected", and many economic indicators will be completed beyond expectations. The GDP growth rate in 2019 will reach the expected CPI growth rate, which can be controlled. The government work report at the beginning of last year set the economic growth target of 2019 as 6% - 6.5%. The report mentioned that the main expected goals reflect the requirements of promoting high-quality development, conform to China's development reality, and link up with the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, which is positive and stable. Data source of GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2019: according to the economic data of the first three quarters published by the National Bureau of statistics of the Bureau of statistics, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the first three quarters is 69779.8 billion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%. On a quarterly basis, the growth rate was 6.4% in the first quarter, 6.2% in the second quarter and 6.0% in the third quarter. "Although the external environment is severe and complex, there are many powerful supporting factors in China.

There are conditions and supports for the stable operation of the economy. " Mao Shengyong, spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, said. On December 11, 2019, China economist, a journal of the Institute of industrial economics of the Academy of Social Sciences, published the results of "hot research of Chinese economists" in the fourth quarter of 2019. It is believed that China's economic operation in 2019 is generally good, the situation of foreign trade and employment is stable and progressive, and the inflationary pressure is eased. It is predicted that the economic growth in 2019 will be 6.2% in the whole year. China's real GDP growth rate in 2019 is 6.1%, 0.5 percentage points lower than that in 2018, and the economic growth target of 6% - 6.5% set by the government is achieved. Data source: in the 2019 government work report of the Bureau of statistics, the expected target of consumer price increase is about 3%. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the CPI from January to November increased by 2.8% on average year-on-year basis, which is in the expected target. Meng Wei, spokesman of the national development and Reform Commission, said recently that if the price of pork is excluded, the CPI operation is relatively stable, and it is expected that the annual CPI increase will be within the expected target range of 3%. Considering the influence of this year's price trend on next year's tail raising factors and the Spring Festival effect, the CPI increase may be higher at the beginning of next year. A number of indicators of people's livelihood exceeded expectations, employment was stable, and medical treatment was more secure, "employment is the biggest livelihood."

According to the Statistics Bureau, from January to November, 12.79 million new urban jobs were created nationwide, 116.3% of the annual target. Mao Shengyong pointed out that with the expansion of economic volume, the economic increment brought by each percentage point of growth is also expanding, and the employment scale that can be absorbed is also increasing. The government work report proposes to keep the unemployment rate of urban survey at about 5.5% in 2019. According to China net financial reporters, in the first 11 months of 2019, the urban survey unemployment rate has remained in the range of 5% - 5.3%. Data source: according to the report of the Bureau of statistics, the level of basic medical insurance and serious illness insurance should be improved in 2019. The per capita financial subsidy standard of basic medical insurance for residents should be increased by 30 yuan, and the starting line of serious illness insurance should be reduced and unified. The proportion of reimbursement should be increased from 50% to 60%. In May 2019, the state health insurance bureau, together with the Ministry of finance, formulated and printed the notice on completing the basic medical insurance work for urban and rural residents in 2019. This goal of people's livelihood has also been achieved. In addition, according to the National Conference on housing and urban rural construction, by the end of November, 3.15 million units of shantytown reconstruction had started, exceeding the target of 2.89 million units in 2019.

Tax reduction and fee reduction will reduce the burden of enterprises by more than two trillion yuan and reduce the flow cheaply. Data shows that from January to October, tax reduction and fee reduction across the country reached 1968.894 billion yuan, including 1647326 million yuan of tax reduction and 321.568 billion yuan of social insurance. "The annual amount of tax reduction and fee reduction will exceed 2 trillion yuan, accounting for more than 2% of GDP, which is significantly higher than other countries in the world." Liu Kun, Minister of finance, pointed out that according to the calculation of the financial and tax departments, tax reduction and fee reduction led the GDP growth of the year by 0.8 percentage points, the fixed asset investment growth by 0.5 percentage points, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods growth by 1.1 percentage points. For the common people (66.120, 0.32, 0.49%), tax reduction and fee reduction significantly increased their income and consumption ability. In the first 10 months of this year, the reform of personal income tax cut a total of 448.084 billion yuan; the per capita tax cut was 1786 yuan. In 2019, enterprises will also greatly "reduce the burden".

By the end of October, small and micro enterprises had reduced tax by 186089 million yuan, and the number of taxpayers who actually enjoyed enterprise income tax reduction and exemption had reached 4.6892 million, while the number of small-scale taxpayers who enjoyed VAT exemption had increased by 4026400. Private enterprises are the main beneficiaries of tax reduction policies. From January to October, the total tax reduction of private enterprises reached 105.1884 billion yuan, accounting for 63.8% of the total tax reduction. Specifically, from May 1, 2019, China will reduce the payment proportion of basic endowment insurance units for urban employees, which can be reduced from 20% to 16% in all regions, effectively reducing the proportion of corporate social security payment. In terms of the traffic tariff that people are most concerned about, the 2019 government work report mentioned that the average broadband tariff of small and medium-sized enterprises will be further reduced by 15%, and the traffic tariff will be further reduced by more than 20%. Recently, China Academy of communications released the third quarter of 2019 China broadband tariff level report. Data shows that the average charge for mobile data traffic is 5.1 yuan / GB, down 47.8% year on year. In addition, it is analyzed that in 2020, 5g scale will be commercially available, the network speed will be accelerated, the average charge of mobile data traffic will be further reduced, and further promotion of technology will be the main direction of speed and cost reduction.