A number of economic indicators are expected to increase by 6.1% in 2019

Time weekly reporter learned from the website of the National Bureau of statistics that the macroeconomic data in December 2019 will be published one after another this week. In addition, the National Bureau of statistics will hold a press conference on January 17, at which time it will release macroeconomic data such as GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019. A number of institutions recently said that in the fourth quarter of 2019, China's economic positive signals increased, and a number of economic indicators showed signs of recovery. The leading indicators of macro-economy such as PMI have been above the boom and bust line for two consecutive months, and the GDP growth in the fourth quarter is expected to exceed 6.0%. On January 4, the China Institute of economic thought and practice of Tsinghua University and the China and World Economic Research Center released China's macroeconomic analysis and forecast (hereinafter referred to as the "report") in Beijing. The report forecasts that GDP will grow by 6.1% in 2019, and China's economic growth will stop declining quarter by quarter in 2020, with an annual growth of 6.1%. The reporter of time weekly learned at the press conference that many scholars at the conference believed that the GDP growth of 2019 would be expected to be "guaranteed by 6".

Yuan Gangming, a researcher at the China Institute of economic thought and practice at Tsinghua University, said that at present, a number of economic indicators have risen in the third quarter of 2019. "It's possible that the final figure for the whole year is 6.1%, or it could fall to 6.0%." Li Daokui, chief economist of the New Development Bank of BRICs, said that in the future, China's economy should gradually change its development thinking from focusing on the supply side in the past to focusing on the management of market demand, releasing long-term market demand. The CPI in 2019 is expected to be 2.9%. The year-on-year growth of China's CPI in 2019 is on the rise. Data shows that in November 2019, CPI rose 4.5% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points higher than last month's value of 3.8%. From January to November, CPI maintained a continuous upward trend. Since April 2019, CPI has entered the "2 era", and then entered a growth range of more than 3% in September. It is worth noting that, according to the food and non food categories, there is a significant differentiation in the price increase of the two in 2019. The data shows that the CPI of food has been climbing for months since February 2019, higher than 5% year-on-year growth since April, and 19.1% year-on-year growth in November. The growth rate of non food CPI declined steadily, with the year-on-year growth of less than 2% in the first 11 months.

In particular, the price level of other commodities excluding pork showed a steady downward trend. In March July 2019, the year-on-year growth rate was stable in the range of 2% - 2.5%. After that, the year-on-year growth rate in consecutive months fell steadily, lower than the growth rate of 2%. The fresh fruit consumer price index has even been negative since the fourth quarter. Excluding the short-term impact of pork, prices of other commodities overall showed a steady downward trend, which to some extent reflected the current situation of weak domestic demand in China, the report said. According to the data, the price of pork rose by 110.2% in November 2019, affecting CPI growth by about 2.64%. According to the report, the CPI is expected to be 2.9% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020. The downward trend of real estate investment growth is in real estate development and investment. In 2019, China's investment shows a downward trend of growth, and the policy is stable and differentiated. Data shows that from January to November 2019, the national real estate development investment is 12126.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate 0.1 percentage point lower than that from January to October. From January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 1489.05 million square meters, 0.1 percentage point higher than that from January to October. In November, the real estate development prosperity index was 101.16, 0.02 points higher than that in October. In 2019, the housing prices in the first tier cities increased slightly, while the cumulative increase in housing prices in the second and third tier cities decreased slightly, and the prices of second-hand houses in some cities continued to decline.

It is predicted in the report that the investment in real estate development in 2020 will continue the slight downward trend in the second half of 2019, and it is difficult to copy the growth recovery in 2019. In 2019, the growth rate of China's real estate development investment will be 10%, and in 2020, the growth rate of China's real estate development investment will slightly drop to 9%. On the one hand, the main driving force of real estate investment growth in the first half of 2019 is land acquisition cost. In the first half of 2019, the proportion of land acquisition cost in real estate investment exceeded 30%, far exceeding the historical average level; on the other hand, most of the growth of land acquisition cost came from the delayed payment of last year's land transaction, and after entering 2019, the volume of land transaction fell sharply. Therefore, this round of growth recovery of real estate development investment in 2019 is not sustainable, and the supply and demand of the real estate market are not significantly positive in the short term. However, the report also points out that since the second half of 2019, the growth rate of real estate sales has picked up slightly. In addition, the demand for housing in the first and second tier cities is still strong, so the pressure on the growth rate of real estate development and investment to stall is relatively small. At the policy level, the report points out that in 2020, the national real estate regulation and control policy is still dominated by stability, and the possibility of large-scale stimulus policy is relatively small. With the further implementation of "one city, one policy", the purchase restriction policies of first tier and second tier cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Nanjing and Qingdao have been relaxed.

According to the report, the real estate market in some newly prosperous cities will be hot. By the end of 2019, the leverage ratio may reach 216%. In 2019, China's macro leverage ratio will slightly increase. According to the calculation of the national balance sheet Research Center, the leverage ratio of China's real economy (including government, non-financial enterprises and residents) in the third quarter of 2019 was 251.1%, up 7.4 percentage points compared with 243.7% at the end of 2018. The report forecasts that China's leverage ratio will be 216% by the end of 2019, 5 percentage points higher than the level at the end of 2018. Despite the recent slight increase in macro leverage, the report believes that the total leverage is still in a reasonable range, which is not enough to cause too much concern. According to the report, there are internal reasons for the rise of leverage in recent years in China: first, the development of China's real estate market and the promotion of financial deepening in recent years have enabled a large number of real assets such as land and houses to be used as collateral to obtain bank credit funds, which has greatly increased the leverage of the residential sector and the non-financial enterprise sector; second, since 2008, local governments Increase investment in infrastructure construction. According to relevant estimates, the implicit debt scale of local governments has reached 30 trillion yuan, mainly from the bank's credit funds, which has boosted the rise of leverage ratio. Third, the low proportion of equity financing in China's financing structure and the long-term high level of national savings rate have made a large number of investment exist in the form of debt, which has boosted the overall water of leverage ratio in China Ping. In the deployment of preventing and resolving major risks, the central economic work conference explicitly mentioned: "we should keep the macro leverage ratio basically stable and consolidate the responsibilities of all parties." The report also puts forward policy recommendations, namely, to establish a national infrastructure investment company to manage the planning, financing, construction and supervision of local infrastructure projects.