China’s EVA Market Has Entered a Downward Trend Since May

May 15th News

Since May 2026, the Chinese EVA market has reached a pivotal turning point. The previous price support has completely collapsed, and the market has entered a phase of accelerated decline. Data show that as of May 14, the benchmark price of EVA stood at 12,016 CNY per ton, down 7.21% from the beginning-of-month level of 12,950 CNY per ton.

After entering May, the downward trend of EVA has significantly intensified. Companies such as Jiangsu Sierbang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics have successively lowered their factory prices, and traders are offering greater discounts to boost sales volume. In the short term, the moving average system has formed a typical bearish arrangement: the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day moving averages have all turned downward simultaneously, and the deviation between price and moving averages continues to widen.

The weakening of the supply and demand fundamentals is the core driving factor behind this round of price declines. From the supply side, China's EVA facility utilization rate remains high, with previously shut-down facilities gradually resuming operations, leading to a continuous increase in market supply. Inventory pressure on traders is becoming increasingly evident, and some companies are actively lowering prices to recover funds, which has intensified the downward pressure on market prices. On the demand side, the weak trend continues, with orders from downstream industries such as photovoltaic and footwear falling short of expectations. Photovoltaic film companies are mainly purchasing based on immediate needs and have a low acceptance of high-priced raw materials. At the same time, terminal demand is recovering slowly, and downstream companies are mostly adopting a strategy of buying as needed, resulting in a lack of large-scale restocking support. In the context of an imbalanced supply and demand situation, prices lack effective support.

From a technical and market signal perspective, the current EVA market in China has entered a phase of low levels. Since May, the 10-day, 20-day, and 30-day cycles have all indicated "low levels," with persistent oversold signals. The negative deviation between the price and the moving average has reached a high level, suggesting a potential for short-term technical recovery. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, the 60-day, 90-day, and annual positions remain in the middle to high range, indicating that the current price is still within a relatively reasonable historical range and has not yet entered an absolutely undervalued level. Additionally, with no significant improvement in the supply and demand fundamentals, the rebound momentum is expected to be limited.

The EVA mean deviation chart shows that from early April to mid-May 2026, the overall EVA mean deviation first surged and then fell back, before turning continuously negative and weakening. At the beginning of April, the mean deviation rapidly climbed from around 600 to a peak of approximately 730, after which it continued to decline, approaching zero by mid-April. Starting in late April, the mean deviation officially turned negative and began to fluctuate downward, falling to about -200 by mid-May. Although there were brief rebounds during this period, they failed to reverse the overall downward trend. Overall, in the earlier phase, market prices were relatively strong, but their supporting power gradually weakened. In the later phase, prices fell below the benchmark level, signaling a general shift in the market from strong to weak.

Looking ahead, the EVA market may see a modest rebound in the short term as prices fall sharply, though the magnitude of this rebound is likely to be limited. On the one hand, after the rapid price decline, some lower-priced supplies may attract rigid downstream demand, and traders might also adopt temporary price-support measures, thereby driving a small-scale price recovery. On the other hand, supply-side pressures remain, and downstream demand has yet to show any substantial improvement, making it difficult for market confidence to recover quickly.

Overall, the current EVA market in China remains in a situation of weak supply and demand and a bearish sentiment. A short-term rebound is unlikely to change the overall downward trend. The market needs to closely monitor the marginal changes in the supply and demand fundamentals and the impact of the macro environment on downstream demand, while being cautious of the risk of further price declines.