Why is the power coal contract against the market?

On March 3, the domestic futures market generally fell sharply after opening, with only a few varieties such as power coal and precious metals bucking the trend. By the end of the day, the main contract of power coal rose 2.05% to 557.2 CNY/ton. Coal industry researchers said that in recent days, the national energy administration and other two departments have successively issued documents on coal supply and coal mine safety. In the short term, the coal supply is weak, and the recent demand for replenishment of coal storage is increasing, which is a positive factor for coal price in the short term. On February 1, the National Energy Administration issued the notice on ensuring the coal supply during the epidemic prevention and control period, which proposed to release the high-quality and advanced coal production capacity in a strong and orderly manner to ensure the stable operation of the coal market during the epidemic prevention and control period. The notice on relevant matters concerning the resumption of coal mine production after the Spring Festival issued by the State Administration of coal mine safety on February 2 requires that coal mines with fewer actual employees on duty must reduce production, reduce the arrangement of footage, and reduce the number of working faces. At the same time, it is clear that for the mines listed in the plan of capacity elimination and exit in 2020 and closed in the near future, in principle, they will not return to work and production, and there will be no "transition period" or "withdrawal period", and someone will be assigned to watch.

Yang Jie, a researcher at Yimei Research Institute, told Shanghai Securities News that although relevant policies require coal supply to be guaranteed, the guarantee content is more inclined to Changxie coal. In the short term, there may be resistance for the private coal mines to return to work and the transportation after the resumption of production. In the near future, the supply of coal in the market will be relatively short. "From the perspective of supply, the inventory of northern ports was low before the Spring Festival. During the festival, the coal transfer in fell, but the long-term coal haulage continued, leading to further decline in the inventory. There are also some changes in the customs declaration policy for imported coal, which makes the bullish sentiment of foreign mines stronger. " According to Yang Jie, in terms of demand, some power plants in Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi and Shandong have been affected by the epidemic in the near future, with reduced transfer in, continuous consumption of inventory, demand for power coal replenishment and improved price acceptance. Recently, the receiving price of some power plants in Shandong has increased by about 50 CNY/ton. Therefore, the spot price of coal futures has risen.