Port coal price stuck in a stalemate and will not fall for a short time

At present, the price of coal traders rises slightly according to the index, and the matching degree of ships and cargoes is low, so the price of coal remains firm. Due to the slow resumption of downstream production and low daily consumption of the power plant, high coal price is not acceptable temporarily; therefore, the transaction is limited and the price is stuck in a stalemate. The author analyzes that due to the limited supply of port goods and the shortage of market coal, port coal price will not fall temporarily.

Limited increase in railway shipment. As of February 10, the recovery rate of coal mines in China was 57.8%. From the perspective of production enterprises, most of the state-owned coal mining enterprises have achieved normal production, while the recovery rate of private mines is relatively low. Many small and medium-sized coal mines have not yet resumed production or can not achieve full load operation, so the centralized recovery of production needs to be delayed to March. Judging from the recent railway transportation, the daily transportation volume of Daqin Railway has increased to 900000 tons, while that of Zhangtang railway is less than 50000 tons. At present, the increment of railway transportation is very limited, and the price of coal mine mouth continues to rise, which largely supports the port coal price.

Downstream recovery may be faster than upstream. Downstream industrial enterprises will return to work and production faster, and daily consumption will recover. At present, enterprises related to the prevention and control of the epidemic have resumed production and other large-scale enterprises are still returning to work. Many industrial enterprises in East and South China will return to work after February 17. In terms of time, the time for the downstream to resume production is faster than that for the upstream; it is expected that coal demand will pick up significantly from next week. In addition, some users intended to use the festival period passive replenishment, has been passive hauling; once the daily consumption up, the days available for coal storage plummeted, the rush will start.

It is difficult to recover the port inventory. According to the analysis of upstream production resumption and railway transportation, in the future, the coal transfer in and out of Bohai port will still be lower than that of Bohai port, and the low inventory will continue to exist. Unless there is a long-term closure, the coal storage in the port will rise for a short time; however, after the weather turns better, after active rush transportation and limited subsequent vehicle access, the port inventory will decline. At present, the increment of the Datong Qinhuangdao line is too small, in addition, it needs to be supplied to the eight coal ports around the Bohai Sea; moreover, the coal storage of the eight ports is at a low level, so it is not easy to increase the coal storage of Qinhuangdao port, which is known as the "wind vane of coal price".

The import situation is not optimistic. Last year, the import of coal was successfully controlled within 300 million tons, and a large number of imported coal was postponed to customs declaration in January this year. However, before and after the Spring Festival, it was a critical period for prevention and control of the epidemic, and the epidemic was designated as a public health emergency by the World Health Organization. Affected by this, Australia and Indonesia, the main coal importing countries, have taken strict isolation measures, while Mongolia has suspended coal export; some ports in East China and South China require imported coal to be declared at different places, and in the critical period of domestic coal supply shortage, the desire of users to rely on imported coal to replenish their warehouses has failed.