Power coal vigilance demand expectation fails

Under the influence of novel coronavirus pneumonia, the market expects supply and demand to be tense, and the price of steam coal futures has been rebounded continuously, but the risk of catching up has increased. Due novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic situation, the miners can not arrive on duty in time after the Spring Festival. The main coal producing areas such as Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia are still in the state of production and reemployment, especially in the private coal mines. Most of them are still on holiday, and the supply tends to tighten. Moreover, the epidemic has been upgraded to a public health emergency of international concern, and imported coal may be affected. At present, the border between China and Mongolia has begun to take temporary restrictions. According to market news, Australia has been isolating ships leaving mainland China for Australia for 14 days since February 1st. Previously, imported coal has been an important means to regulate the stability of coal supply. Once the import is limited, it will increase the supply pressure of coal for domestic trade in the northern port. From the point of view of the northern ports, the supply capacity of the port has declined at present due to the inventory removal before the Spring Festival.

As of February 11, Qinhuangdao Port coal inventory was 4.02 million tons, at a three-year low. Affected by the epidemic situation, in the context of the suspension of operation of the logistics park in the production area and the limitation of road transportation, the coal export is obviously limited, and the coal logistics chain is lengthy, which limits the coal gathering port, so the supply will continue to show a tight state. However, since February, the relevant departments of the state have repeatedly deployed the work of epidemic prevention and supply guarantee in the coal industry, and asked to speed up the resumption of production and work in the production areas. It is strictly prohibited to raise the price at will outside the contract and provide green channel support for coal transportation; it is strictly prohibited to set up restrictions in various names to affect the normal circulation of coal. Therefore, it is expected that the production and transportation activities of coal mines in the main production area will gradually resume with the alleviation of the epidemic in late February. In recent days, the daily consumption of power plants is low, and inland power plants are willing to raise their prices, which further aggravates the market's concern about the supply and demand situation. At present, while strictly controlling the epidemic situation, the government has repeatedly stressed the need to stabilize economic growth, seize enterprise production, and implement a number of measures to reduce business pressure.

Downstream enterprises are about to return to work in a centralized way. Under optimistic expectation, downstream enterprises will increase their demand for goods in advance. However, it is still early to lift the epidemic alarm. Under the constraints of personnel isolation and logistics, the actual production capacity of labor-intensive enterprises such as production and manufacturing industry is limited, while the service industry is still in a low tide. The overall third industry power consumption pressure will drag down the power demand of the whole society. In addition, the export industry is affected, the actual demand for coal may not be as optimistic as expected. In addition, after February, as the heating season comes to an end, the demand for electric coal will also turn to the off-season. From the perspective of power plants, the daily coal consumption of power plants is very low at present. As of February 11, the daily coal consumption of six coastal power plants is 372000 tons, which is at a low level in recent years. The impact of the epidemic on the downstream demand end can be seen. However, the inventory of six coastal power plants has rapidly climbed to 16.88 million tons, a significant increase of 1.3 million tons compared with the end of January. Even after the downstream resumption of production, the daily coal consumption has returned to normal 650000 tons, or even about 700000 tons on the high side, the current coal inventory level can still guarantee production for a period of time, so the purchase pressure is not big. In a word, in the short term, under the situation of tight supply and early downstream stock, the price of power coal will be stronger, but the supply side is gradually improving, and once the demand side is not as strong as expected, the risk of long will increase.