The short-term trend of polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer market is weak

From March 24 to April 3, 2020, the market for polycarboxylic acid water-reducing monomers was negatively affected by the raw material ethylene oxide market after two sharp declines, and then from April 4 to April 7 Ching Ming Festival During the period, the overall market price of monomers inexplicably moved up. As of today, monomer East China TPEG offers around 7400-7600 CNY/ton and HPEG around 7200-7400 CNY/ton.

From the perspective of raw materials: OPEC + oil-producing countries plan to hold an emergency meeting on April 6 and discuss the reduction of 10 million barrels per day. The news of the international crude oil market has increased sharply, but it has been delayed until April 9. Some sources said that the invited countries of the OPEC + emergency meeting did not include the release of bearish information from the United States and Canada, which led to investors' short-selling mood heating up again, suppressing the sharp drop in international crude oil futures prices on the 6th. The recent price of the Northeast Asian ethylene market has continued to decline. As of April 6, the Northeast Asian ethylene market price was around 448-454 US dollars / ton. The upstream market of ethylene oxide continued to decline in the upstream market, and most downstream and terminals waited and see. The short-term consolidation was maintained. As of today, the mainstream of ethylene oxide in the east China market is 5,800 CNY/ton.

From the supply side: On March 31, affected by the downward adjustment of the ethylene oxide market, the monomer market fell. Before the Qingming Festival, affected by the news of the OPEC + emergency meeting on April 6, the price of crude oil rose sharply, and the rebound of the upstream product market price brought a favorable bias to the monomer market. Monomer manufacturers took the opportunity to raise the market price, the mainstream price in the market rose by about 100-200 CNY/ton, many monomer factories increased orders, and the market mentality improved slightly.

From the demand side: During the Qingming Festival, many monomer factories moved up, driving the overall market of monomers. Most downstream users were affected by the mentality of buying and not buying and falling, intending to bargain for goods, and the trading atmosphere in the market improved. The volume of real orders increased.

In general, the OPEC + emergency meeting held on April 9 discussed crude oil production reduction plans, but due to the release of some bad news, the prospects of this meeting faced uncertainty, the Northeast Asian ethylene market prices are low, and the ethylene oxide market is under pressure to increase However, the raw material market in the monomer market still tends to be dragged down by bearishness. Most monomer manufacturers on the supply side took advantage of the inventory, but affected by the outbreak of the global epidemic and the weak economic situation, the degree of downstream demand recovery is still limited. In the absence of a significant recovery in terminal demand, it is expected that the market of polycarboxylic acid water-reducing monomers will be weak in the short-term, take reasonable actions, exercise caution, and focus on the recovery of downstream demand in April!