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    Home > Chemial News > > Decline of rubber and plastic raw materials and demand in March and Early April

    Decline of rubber and plastic raw materials and demand in March and Early April

    Echemi 2020-04-16

    In March, the rubber and plastic index fell all the way, and there was no sign of rebound.The rubber and plastics index was 617 points in early March, and the rubber and plastics index on March 31 was 545 points, a decrease of 48.58% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14) and a decrease of 11.67% from the beginning of March.


    In terms of general plastics, general plastics prices generally fell in March, and the decline was somewhat differentiated, of which only PP fell within 5%. LLDPE, PVC, PS, EPS and other products all fell by more than 10%. As of March 30, the General Plastics Index was 656 points, a decrease of 41.11 %% from the highest point in the cycle of 1114 points (2013-12-12).


    The minimum drop in PP was only 4.09%. First, the price of raw material propylene fell sharply. In March, the price of propylene dropped from 6,350 yuan / ton to 5,377 yuan / ton, an overall decline of 15.32%. The cost is relatively negative for polypropylene. Secondly, as the manufacturing industry has not yet fully recovered, the insufficient demand in the downstream drawing and injection molding industries drags down the polypropylene market. Finally, the downstream agricultural film market demand picked up during the peak agricultural season. Since March, the demand for agricultural film has increased by more than 30% compared with February. In addition, the demand for meltblown fabrics is strong, which forms a certain support for polypropylene. To a certain extent, the decline in polypropylene has been eased.


    The largest drop in EPS was 15.78%. In March, EPS was hit twice by costs and demand, and prices fell all the way. In March, the price of raw material PS dropped from 9333 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7866 yuan / ton, an overall decrease of 15.72%. Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic at the beginning of the year, domestic real estate and home appliance industries started construction, and production and sales were light. The demand for EPS is seriously insufficient, which drags down the EPS market sharply.


    In terms of engineering plastics, the prices of engineering plastics generally fell in March, with the smallest drop being PA66, with a drop of 2.89%. The largest drop was PA6, which was down by 17.36%. As of March 30, the engineering plastics sector index was 596 points, a decrease of 41.16% from the highest point of 1013 on February 08, 2012. Although both PA6 and PA66 went lower, there was a gap between the declines, with a decline of 17.36% and a decline of only 2.89%. On the one hand, the downstream textile and automotive industries of PA6 and PA66 are in a sluggish state, and the construction is not high. The demand side drags down both products. However, due to the relatively low monopoly prices of the adiponitrile companies that are intermediate raw materials for PA66, the price of PA66 is weakened by the prices of pure benzene and oil. This is also the reason for the sharp drop in crude oil and the relatively small decrease of PA66.


    In terms of rubber, the domestic rubber market also fell in March. The average monthly increase or decrease of rubber in March was -14.16%. Among them, nitrile rubber and natural rubber fell within 10%. Butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber fell by nearly 20%.


    The price of natural rubber fell by 9.48% in March. The first is the sharp reduction in demand from tire companies. In March, domestic tire companies resumed production and production steadily. At first, the domestic epidemic situation was well controlled. The enterprise's mentality was positive, and the spread abroad was rapid. It has a huge impact on downstream orders, and tire exports are blocked. The production situation of the tire enterprises was lower than expected. Secondly, the downward cost of alternative rubber constitutes pressure on natural rubber. The current international crude oil plunge has a very direct impact on commodities in the chemical industry chain. Due to the decline in crude oil, the cost of natural rubber has decreased, and the cost of synthetic rubber has been reduced. As some synthetic rubbers can replace natural rubber in the production of tire factories, the sluggish natural rubber market is worsened. Finally, because natural rubber is currently in a cut-off period, coupled with the control measures implemented by Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries in response to the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. In the short term, the supply of domestic natural rubber prices has formed a certain support from the supply, which has eased the decline of natural rubber.


    In March, the prices of butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber fell by 19.29% and 19.08% respectively. Raw materials: Due to the influence of crude oil, the prices of cis-butadiene and styrene-butadiene rubber raw materials have fallen sharply, which has dragged down the synthetic rubber market. The price of raw material butadiene in March fell from 6,223 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 5,127 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an overall decline of 17.61%; the price of styrene in March fell from 6,700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 4,650 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an overall decline of 30.60%. Supply and demand side: Downstream tire industry exports are blocked and the start of the downturn, the procurement of synthetic rubber is light, and the demand side strongly suppresses the synthetic rubber market.

     

    Looking at the market outlook, the trend of the rubber and plastics market in April still depends on the two major aspects of raw materials and demand. From the perspective of raw materials, the source of the entire petrochemical industry chain-crude oil has fallen below the US shale oil cost line after the plunge since mid-February. It is currently falling to the Russian crude oil cost line, and the probability of falling again is not too great. It is expected that later costs will gradually weaken in the negative impact of the rubber and plastics market. From the demand side, although domestic efforts to resume production have continued to increase. However, foreign countries are still seriously affected by the epidemic situation, and the export of products other than epidemic prevention materials will continue to be blocked. Unfavorable to the recovery of domestic export enterprises and the export product industry chain, the market demand for rubber and plastics in April is still difficult to show obvious signs of optimism. On the whole, if crude oil does not rise sharply in April, the rubber and plastics market will still be in a stage of bottom shock.

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