The battle for Medicine King! With the onslaught of K drug and the setback of Xiomele, the biggest variable in the world's TOP10 drug rankings in 2022 is who?

With the global MNC giants have announced the Q3 financial results in 2022, from the sales of their blockbuster products, the pharmaceutical industry 2022 top ten "blockbuster" annual performance ranking is almost clear.
     

In addition to Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine and MNC data that have been released, Samele retained the title of "drug king" with sales of 15.658 billion dollars, only 198 million won more than K, which ranked second. BMS 'Alatorol and Gilead's bitovicide followed with sales of $9.072 billion and $7.507 billion, respectively.

On the list of global drug sales, Lilly ranked 10th in 2021 with the annual sales of $6.472 billion due to the antidiabetic drug Duraglutide. From the data of the third quarter report, the sales of Duraglutide in the first three quarters of 2022 was $5.504 billion, the growth momentum has fallen back signs, whether it can keep the top ten position is still uncertain.

In contrast, Semaglutide, a drug owned by Novo Nordisk, is regarded as one of the phenomenal drugs in 2022 that could hit billions of dollars in sales, due to the "low lying" reputation and the "out-of-stock" effect in many places.

01 - MNC Companies: How to hold on to the patent Cliff

Summerol held the top spot for nine years, starting with Pfizer's Lipitor in 2012. In 2021, its annual sales exceeded $20 billion for the first time, and the cumulative sales since listing exceeded $180 billion.

However, in the first quarter of 2022, Drug K was briefly offside when it came within $100 million of sales of Shomelow.
In addition to competition from latecomers, the market is focusing on the "patent cliff" that is looming. On the one hand, is based on repairing the merlot patents expire after vacated by the huge market, on the other hand is also based on the common trouble, companies in the next decade, BMS/Pfizer's elle, abbvie/Johnson & Johnson, for ibrahimovic, Johnson & Johnson of starwood, than this dimension of gilead many blockbuster drugs will go after face to face with patent protection.

Abbvie expects the impact on the Humele franchise market to be around 45% (+/-10%) by 2023, with more detailed projections needed based on factors such as the price of biosimilars, AbbVie Chairman and Chief Executive Rick said on a conference call after third-quarter earnings.

A patent on Humele expired as early as 2016, but AbbVie has filed more than 250 patent applications for the drug's multiple indications, creating an airtight patent jungle. The calculation of patent expiration dates in the United States is relatively complex and requires multiple variables, such as patent term adjustment, patent term extension, etc., so the duration can sometimes be longer than 20 years after the filing date.

What's clear is that Amgen's biosimilar will be available in the U.S. starting in January 2023, and Samsung, Boehringer, Viatris, and Sandoz will all launch their own versions of adalimumab in 2023.

Abbvie's hopes of fixing the "slump" left by Humelux appear to rest on its Skyrizi and Rinvoq drugs. On a conference call after the third-quarter results, company executives said several times that Skyrizi and Rinvoq are now on track to generate more than $7.5 billion in combined sales this year, far exceeding initial expectations and on track to eventually surpass Summel's peak revenue and become the alternative to Summel.

02 -- K drug is expected to become the "new king", O drug is still far from the door of the super blockbuster

Merck's K drug, with sales of $15.461 billion in the first three quarters, is expected to become a blockbuster drug that will surpass the $20 billion mark, according to the financial disclosure data. In the first three quarters, Merck generated $45.453 billion in revenue, with pharmaceutical sales of $39.826 billion. Keytruda accounted for 38.8% of pharmaceutical revenue.

In 2021, Keytruda generated $17.186 billion in sales and $42.753 billion in pharmaceutical revenue, with Keytruda accounting for 40.2% of total pharmaceutical revenue. With increasing penetration in key cancer markets, such as NSCLC and triple-negative breast cancer, K saw double-digit growth of 20% and accounted for nearly one-third of MSD's revenue. Looking forward, the proportion of drug K in the total sales of Merck's pharmaceutical business increased year by year. In 2019 and 2020, the annual sales of drug K were 11.084 billion dollars and 14.38 billion dollars, respectively, accounting for 32.5% and 39.28% of the total revenue of pharmaceutical business. Evaluate Pharma had predicted that Keytruda could have global sales of $24.32 billion by 2026, making it the world's best-selling drug.

In the face of K, however, Merck also has a "patent cliff" concerns. Fierce Pharma previously released data showing that key patents on K are set to expire in 2028, and a biosimilar to Keytruda is also in the works. In response to this crisis, MSD in recent years acquisition action. In may this year, koren pharmaceutical announced that its subsidiary corrado Colombo's biological and MSD amendment to the license agreement, corrado Colombo ty to its biological macromolecular tumor project with independent intellectual property rights of A paid exclusive license, to MSD in greater China (including mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan area) outside the scope of commercial development; In July, Merck and Orion announced a global R&D collaboration agreement to jointly develop Orion's in-development therapy, ODM-208, and other drugs targeting cytochrome P450 11A1(CYP11A1); In February 2021, Merck acquired Pandion for $1.85 billion to expand its autoimmune research and development pipeline. It was also widely reported that MSD would acquire Seagen, an ADC company.

Compared with K's $15.461 billion in the first three quarters of this year, O's $6.033 billion is still far from being a "super blockbuster."
But from the perspective of BMS's own product line, O remains its most important growth driver. Evaluate Pharma had previously predicted that Drug O would rank eighth among the Top10 best-selling drugs in the world in 2022, with sales of $8.88 billion.

03 -- Does COVID-19 vaccine continue to Top the list? Johnson & Johnson's super "single product" is under siege by wolves

According to current data, two COVID-19 vaccines, Pfizer's Comirnaty and Moderna's Spikevax, will still be among the top 10 best-selling drugs in the world this year. Comirnaty's $26.477 billion in sales for the previous three quarters is almost certain to take the top spot, but with Moderna's third-quarter results yet to be released, there is uncertainty about Spikevax's chances of making the top three.

In the first half of 2022, Pfizer posted revenue of $53.402 billion, up 60% from a year earlier, boosted by doubling sales of its Comirnaty vaccine and Paxlovid drug. Comirnaty reported sales of $22.075 billion in the first half, up 95% year on year.

In its earnings statement, Pfizer explained that Comirnaty grew 20% globally in the second quarter, driven by strong growth in emerging markets and the realization of deliveries in some developed markets, which partially offset slower growth in the U.S. and Canada.

Moderna reported $10.8 billion in total revenue, up 71% year over year, thanks to strong growth in its COVID-19 vaccine Spikevax (mRNA-1273), Moderna's only commercially available product, which posted record sales of $10.5 billion. That's up 76 per cent year on year. Moderna expects sales of approximately $21 billion in Spikevax purchase agreements for delivery in 2022.

Although the latest figures for the third quarter have not yet been disclosed, with only half annual data, the two COVID-19 vaccines are among the few players to break the million mark in sales, taking the lead. However, the rapid growth of COVID-19 vaccines in the future may be moderated due to a number of factors, including slower growth in global vaccination rates, reduced demand for vaccines and new entrants.

Global vaccine production could exceed 9 billion doses in 2022, according to Airfinity's projections, but by 2023 and beyond, there could be a significant drop in demand. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the growth of the two COVID-19 vaccines will be weakened in the future, which will affect the performance of the two vaccines.

In addition to the COVID-19 vaccine, Johnson & Johnson's two super "single-product" drugs on the list are also facing a crisis surrounded by "wolves". J&j sold more than $2 billion of two drugs in the third quarter. With sales of $2.449 billion, ulsinumab was the strongest, followed by daratumumab, which surged 29.8 percent to $2.052 billion. Notably, J&J's two best-selling products are already on the market in China.

However, the main U.S. patent on ulsinumab expires in 2023. In China, Huadong Pharmaceutical, Quanxin Biological and Baiotai have made rapid progress in the research and development of ulsinumab biosimilar drugs. According to public reports, last year, usinumab bioanalogue HDM3001(QX001S), a wholly-owned subsidiary of East China Medical Co., Ltd. and Quanxin Bioanalogue, and usinumab bioanalogue BAT2206, a bioanalogue of Biotael, have entered the phase III clinical study phase for the treatment of moderate to severe plaque psoriasis in adults. In addition, daratumumab is also facing challenges from biosimilar drugs in China.

04 -- What are the potential candidates for the TOP10 best-selling drugs in 2022?

If the potential player, Novo Nordes Semaglutide this phenomenon product, or on the list.
According to the 2022 semi-annual report, sales of Semaglutide subcutaneous preparation Ozempic were DKK 26.384 billion (US $3.604 billion), up 87% year on year; Semaglutide's oral formulation Rybelsus had sales of DKR 4.235 billion ($579 million), up 153%; Together, they contributed 30.619 billion Danish kroner ($4.183 billion).
In 2021, Novo Nordes' full-year performance was about $5.886 billion, yet to make a significant appearance in the Top 10. To put this in context, in fiscal 2021, Novo Nordes had revenues of DKK 33.705 billion (US $5.47 billion) for Ozempic and DKK 4.838 billion (US $739 million) for Rybelsus. That's 38.543 billion Danish kroner ($5.886 billion).

If growth continues at a high rate, Novo Nordes Semaglutide could surpass $10 billion this year, making it a formidable competitor to the top 10 bestsellers.

In addition, due to the relatively strong clinical demand, Daiichi Sankyo Enhertu is also worthy of attention. It may not be enough to reach the top 10, but first-half sales of Y79.5bn ($535m) prompted Daiichi Sankyo to sharply raise its full-year sales forecast for Enhertu from $870m to $1.3bn.

Specifically, the U.S. market will contribute $1 billion in sales for Enhertu this year. Enhertu remains the first choice for new patients in second-line HER2-positive breast cancer, third-line HER2-positive breast cancer, and second-line HER2-positive gastric cancer. Her2-low expression breast cancer is also rapidly penetrating the market.

In addition to K drugs and other concerns, is expected to impact the "new king", the HPV vaccine Gardasil is also expected to impact the best-selling drugs of top 10 a member, the first three quarters of sales of $4.144 billion, a year-on-year growth of 31%. For the third quarter, GARDASIL/GARDASIL 9 sales rose 15 percent to $2.3 billion, driven by strong demand outside the United States, particularly from increased supply in China.

This time, BMS also has a number of drugs or shortlisted. In terms of sales, the main drugs are anticoagulant Eliquis and PD-1 mab Opdivo (O drug). Eliquis had cumulative sales of $9.072 billion in the first three quarters, and O had cumulative sales of $6.033 billion in the first three quarters. However, BMS's Q3 results were down overall, mainly due to a generic hit to its blockbuster Revlimid (lenalidomide), with international revenue down 76% year-over-year from Q3 2021 to $250 million.

The chess game is not determined, and see how this year's TOP10 best-selling drugs pattern changes.