Domestic urea prices slowed down slowly

At present, the domestic urea market is running weakly. New factory orders are not tepid. Slowing down operations to attract orders, manufacturers still inevitably play games with each other. Even so, the urea's weakness has not stopped. The demand for agriculture is general, and the sales progress of the terminal grassroots is slow. Large agricultural suppliers are cautious to use and pick up at a high level. There is no support for centralized procurement. In addition, the demand for urea in the industry is light, especially for plywood factories. Very little, so if the urea companies want to continue to quickly reduce prices and attract orders, I am afraid that they ca n’t eat hot tofu.


It is understood that the domestic urea prices are slowly falling. For example, the mainstream urea ex-factory quotation in Hebei is about 1660-1700 CNY/ton, and the Shandong urea mainstream ex-factory quotation is about 1660-1680 CNY/ton. The transaction has certain room for negotiation; the grassroots market The wholesale is light, and it is difficult to change the status of the market without prices in many areas. For example, the wholesale price of urea in some parts of Jiangsu is about 1730-1800 CNY/ton. For detailed prices in other areas, please join the member area of China Fertilizer Network to know. And we must pay close attention to the changes of various factors that affect the trend of urea.


First of all, the overall industry operating rate of urea companies is still around 60%, and there should be no significant downward trend in the short term. According to the statistics of China Fertilizer Network, as of now, the overall industry of urea companies has started about 60% of the total production, with a daily output of about 158,000 to 160,000 tons. Even if some major factories are temporarily overhauled, it is also a short-term situation. There will be a long-term maintenance plan; in addition, during the middle of the year or in the second half of the year, the newly added urea plants under construction are ready to be put into production, and the domestic urea production capacity will increase by then, which is bound to be negative for the long-term market. The situation of oversupply is becoming more and more obvious, and it is still necessary to guard against the recurrence of price wars between the upstream and downstream parties.


Secondly, the effect of small nitrogen fertilizer ammonium chloride on urea is more obvious. The ammonium chloride market is now looking forward to a turnaround after the start of the reduction, but its price is still low. In the later period, even if some ammonium chloride enterprises carry out maintenance as scheduled, the supply on the market should be slightly tight, and the price will be somewhat higher. Support, and there has been a certain improvement in the industry's mentality. Enterprises are mainly paying prices or operating stably. If the price is not lowered, it will not be bad for urea; but the sales pressure of compound fertilizer companies is too large. From the perspective of cost reduction, Some compound fertilizer companies may also choose to purchase some ammonium chloride as raw materials, which is a certain degree of disadvantage for urea.


Once again, the overall performance in terms of demand is not good, and the market lacks the support of centralized procurement. I have to mention the agricultural demand first. At the end of the spring market, grassroots farmers use fertilizer only for sporadic purchases. Grassroots retailers also wait and see, and do not pick up the goods. The same is true of large agricultural investors. At the end of the spring market when the summer fertilizer demand is tepid, the lack of enthusiasm for the purchase of urea, maintaining a consistent on-demand mining operation mode, the domestic demand lacks the support of centralized procurement, and the later sporadic fertilizer demand It is far from enough to relieve the weak urea market. In the international market, even though there were previous expectations for printing, but there was no hype, coupled with the impact of international public health events and the negative impact of the economic environment, the urea export market is not optimistic, and the support for our domestic market is limited. It is inevitable that the supply of goods will be in excess.


Finally, in a comprehensive view, if the urea market wants to take advantage of the price reduction, it only considers the current shipment problem, but the current problem in the market is not the price, but the light demand is the key; it is expected that the urea market will be in the near future Still in a state of weakness, wait patiently for the chance of a lifetime.