BDO Market Trends Remain in a Limping Consolidation

January 9th News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from January 4 to 9, the BDO price in China remained at 7,357 CNY/ton, with the price remaining stable on a weekly basis and falling by 13.15% year-over-year. The suppliers' intention to stabilize the market continues, while under cost pressure, buyers are more aggressive in negotiations, leading to intensified bargaining. As a result, it is difficult for the BDO market in China to see significant fluctuations.

Supply Side: In terms of facilities, Wanhua Chemical and Lantian Tunhe's Phase II plants are undergoing maintenance or catalyst replacement, leading to a reduction in supply. This has increased support from the supply side. Some suppliers have slightly narrowed their annual contracts, and online auction prices have been relatively high, indicating a strong desire among suppliers to stabilize the market. The BDO supply side is influenced by positive factors.

Statistical Summary of Operating Conditions for Some Manufacturing Facilities:

Cost Perspective: Regarding raw material calcium carbide, the Chinese calcium carbide market has seen prices rise, with regional differences in shipment volumes among producers, yet overall supply remains tight. As for the raw material methanol, prices in China have weakened and declined. As of 10:00 a.m. on January 9, the reference price for methanol in Taicang, China, was around 2,250 CNY per ton. With calcium carbide prices rising and methanol prices initially surging before retreating, the cost impact on BDO is mixed—both positive and negative.

Demand Side: Downstream PTMEG operating rates have increased, while those for PBT, GBL-NMP, and PU slurries have declined. Other downstream sectors are operating steadily, leading to a month-on-month decrease in overall demand. Moreover, the Sichuan Yongying plant is scheduled to resume operations in mid-January, but there is no significant increase in downstream demand. As a result, supply-demand pressures in the industry will intensify. The impact on BDO demand is mixed.

Market Outlook: Both supply and demand are on the rise, intensifying bargaining and competition among traders, while the market’s center of gravity remains relatively stable for now. With maintenance units resuming operations, the supply of goods has increased, thereby weakening support from the supply side. Downstream PTMEG production rates have risen, and other industries remain stable, leading to an increase in the consumption of raw materials. BDO analysts forecast that the Chinese BDO market is likely to see an upward trend.