Positive Factors Drive Up Butanol Market

January 9 news: According to the commodity market analysis system, as of January 9, 2025, the reference price for n-butanol in Shandong, China, was 5,766 CNY per ton. Compared with January 1 (reference price of 5,633 CNY per ton), the price has risen by 133 CNY per ton, representing a price increase of 2.37%. Compared with December 1 (reference price of 5,166 CNY per ton), the price has risen by 600 CNY per ton, reflecting a price increase of 11.61%.

The atmosphere is improving, and the price center of gravity for n-butanol in Shandong has shifted upward this week.

From the commodity market analysis system, it can be seen that this week (1.4-1.9), the n-butanol market in Shandong, China, showed an overall trend of stabilizing first and then rising. From the 4th to the 7th, the n-butanol market in Shandong was at a high level with stable operations, and the market trading atmosphere was good. From the 8th to the 9th, under the impetus of multiple favorable factors, n-butanol factories and suppliers raised the selling price of n-butanol, with an increase of 100-200 CNY/ton. The reference price for n-butanol was around 5,700-5,900 CNY/ton.

Analysis of Factors Affecting Market Conditions

Supply side: This week, Chinese n-butanol producers implemented plant maintenance plans, with some n-butanol factories in Shandong reducing their operating rates. Overall, the industry's operating rate decreased compared to last week, leading to a contraction in the supply of spot market goods, which provided fundamental support for price increases.

Demand Side: Currently, some downstream users of n-butanol—such as butyl acetate and butyl acrylate—anticipate stockpiling ahead of the Spring Festival. Although downstream industries like coatings and adhesives are in the traditional off-season, rigid demand procurement by leading companies remains stable. Therefore, the demand side continues to provide positive support to the market.

Cost Perspective: This week, the price of propylene—the raw material for n-butanol—has risen. The increase in raw material costs has provided cost support to n-butanol producers, strengthening their willingness to hold prices steady and making them a key driver behind the price hike.

Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the trend of tightening supply in the n-butanol market will continue. The pre-holiday stocking demand from downstream has not been fully released. N-butanol data analysts expect that next week, the price of n-butanol in Shandong region may fluctuate at a high level, with the price range maintained around 5750-5900 CNY/ton. Specific developments will still need to be monitored based on changes in supply and demand as well as cost factors.