Industry forecasts: Vietnam's basa fish exports will reach $2.5 billion this year

Vietnam has exported nearly $2 billion worth of basa fish in the first nine months of 2022, far exceeding industry expectations. However, judging by September's export performance, inflation has hit all food and seafood sectors hard, and basa has not been spared.

Vietnam's exports of basa fish in September were twice the level of the same month in 2021, but this was the lowest level since the beginning of the year, as inflation and currency depreciation in many import markets had a severe impact on low - and middle-income consumers, who had to be cautious about spending.

Inflation has reduced demand for moderately priced foods, such as basa fish, that are affordable to the vast majority of ordinary people in each country. Even in the more optimistic Chinese market, basha exports to China in September were lower than in August, though up 190 percent from a year earlier.

Vietnam exported $49 million worth of basah fish to China in September 2022, significantly lower than the $64 million in August, as China reduced its import demand for frozen basah fillets and whole fish.

By the end of the third quarter of 2022, China accounted for nearly 30% of Vietnam's basa fish exports, or nearly US $590 million, an increase of 111% over the same period last year. Of this, sliced fish accounted for 75%, worth US $441 million, and the rest was whole fish. Exports to China have almost recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

Exports of Vietnamese basa fish to the U.S. rose 41 percent in September, but were still lower than in August. By the end of the third quarter, exports to the United States were $454 million, up 83 percent year on year, accounting for 23 percent. Frozen basa slices accounted for 96 percent worth $437 million, processed Basa 2.2 percent worth nearly $10 million, and the rest was frozen whole plates of fish, accounting for only 1.6 percent.

In the EU, inflation and energy price increases have directly affected the cost of transporting and storing fish products, and the euro has fallen to a 20-year low against the dollar, further reducing demand for fish in the EU market, with Vietnamese basa fish exports to the EU falling by $3m in September compared with August.

With the UK, like the EU, grappling with rising prices and soaring energy costs due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, exports of Vietnamese basa fish to the UK reached nearly $50m in the first nine months of the year, up 30 per cent on the same period last year, thanks largely to a strong recovery in the second quarter, but in the third quarter fewer basa fish were bought than in previous months.

Industry forecasts predict that Vietnam's basa fish exports will reach $2.5 billion this year.