Glycerin market mentality analysis: upstream raw materials are mostly bullish

After a small increase in glycerin in the previous period, the market returned to calm. Although holders are less likely to ship at low prices, their shipment speed has slowed down significantly. Market participants have a weakened attitude towards the market outlook, and their sentiment has turned from bullish to wait-and-see. The mentality of market participants is divided. Manufacturers and traders have turned their attention to downstream demand.

Importers of crude glycerin-mostly bullish. Among the crude glycerin importers surveyed, most of them are bullish, accounting for up to 60%. Most crude glycerin importers believe that crude glycerin may continue to rise in the later stage, mainly based on the decrease in the volume of their suppliers and the decrease in the intention of low-cost shipments. Some crude glycerin importers hold a wait-and-see attitude towards crude glycerin, mainly because they believe that with the rise in oil prices and the impact of biodiesel policies in Southeast Asia, crude glycerin output will increase and the room for higher prices will be limited. Today, 80% of crude glycerin prices are closed at US$220-245/ton CIF China. There are very few bearish thoughts about the outlook for crude glycerin, mainly because the price below US$200/ton may reduce the willingness of foreign countries to sell crude glycerin to China.

Refined glycerin producers-mainly bullish. Most of the refining plants currently in production are bullish about the market outlook, with the ratio being around 80%. Mainly lies in the following points: 1. The low-priced crude glycerin source is significantly reduced, and the source of 220 US dollars/ton CIF China is difficult to find 2. Today's production is mostly high-priced cargo in the early stage, and some manufacturers are already in a state of loss, and low-priced raw materials are restocked The time is short, and the manufacturer's intention to ship at low prices is extremely low. 3. Manufacturers believe that the low-price supply in the market has been consumed in the early stage, and the situation that low prices drag the market will reduce.

Traders-mainly wait and see. The participation of traders in the market has declined. After the previous wave of rapid rise and rapid decline of glycerin, very few traders have made profits, and most traders are in a state of loss. After this rapid wave of ups and downs, traders are now less inclined to buy bottoms and stay on the sidelines. Some traders said that there is still surplus in the stocks in the early stage, and they will pay more attention to the market if they stock up again. Market participants pay more attention to the input and output of the glycerol method epichlorohydrin plant in the second half of the year.

Downstream enterprises-advance according to demand, but wait and see on the market has increased. Downstream companies adopt a wait-and-see attitude whether they are glycerin-based epichlorohydrin, polyether industry or daily chemical industry. Most of the downstream only enter the market under production demand, and the downstream mostly intends to accept low-priced imported flexitanks, and the intention to accept high-priced orders is low. In the daily chemical and food industries, after the glycerin price has been increased in the early stage, the inventory will be digested more and a small amount of stock will be covered. Affected by the low price of raw materials, downstream attention to glycerin is also increasing, mainly because the price of crude glycerin has been low, and more attention is paid to the consumption of market sources.

From a later point of view, the focus of the market is on upstream raw materials and downstream demand. Upstream raw materials are mostly bullish, which is also in line with the current mentality of holders. The downstream has insufficient market information and increased market attention, but operations are still cautious.