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Global feed markets: Tight corn supplies in the United States and Argentina supported higher corn prices

 foodmate 2023-01-16

Foreign media news on January 15: In the week ending January 13, 2023, global feed food prices mostly rose, of which Chicago corn futures led the rally, mainly because the US Department of Agriculture and Argentina Exchange lowered US corn and Argentina corn production forecasts, causing tight supply concerns; International crude oil futures strengthened, and the dollar fell to a new low in more than seven months, which also supported US corn prices. However, weak demand for corn exports in the United States and a bumper corn production in Brazil are in sight, limiting the growth of corn prices. European corn prices also fell on the back of the strengthening of the euro.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March corn futures closed at about $6.75 per bushel on Friday, up 3.2% from a week ago; The January shipment of Meiwan No. 2 yellow corn was quoted at $7.7150 per bushel, up 1.4% from a week ago; March corn futures on the EURONEXT exchange closed at around 280.00 euros/mt, down 3.6% from a week ago. FOB quotations for Argentine corn on the upper river were $308/mt, up 1.3% from a week ago.

International crude futures posted their biggest weekly gain since October this week as demand from China, the world's top importer, showed signs of growth, while the dollar fell to a seven-month low on expectations that the Federal Reserve could slow the pace of interest rate hikes. On Friday, Brent crude futures, the global benchmark for March, were at $85.28 a barrel, up 8.5 percent from a week ago. The dollar index closed at 101.946 on Friday, down 1.6 percent from a week ago, as the U.S. personal consumer price index fell for the first time in two and a half years in December, cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve would slow its interest rate hikes.

The USDA's surprise sharply lowered its U.S. corn production forecast in its January supply and demand report, triggering a spike in corn prices. The USDA's sharp downward revision of corn harvest by 1.6 million acres offset the impact of the yield increase, bringing U.S. corn production in 2022/23 to 13.73 billion bushels, 200 million bushels lower than last month's forecast and 8.9% lower than the previous year. U.S. corn exports were revised down by 150 million bushels to 1.925 billion bushels, down 22.1 percent from the previous year, as export shipments through December were slow and unshipped volumes through early January hit a three-year low. U.S. corn was lowered by 10 million bushels in food, seeds and industrial use (FSI) due to lower corn use in the starch and glucose industries. Feed and other use of maize was lowered by 25 million bushels to 5.275 billion bushels. Corn use in the ethanol sector remained unchanged at 5.275 billion bushels. Ending inventories were revised down by 15 million bushels to 1.242 billion bushels, down 9.8% year-on-year. The average corn farm price estimate for 2022/23 remains unchanged at $6.70 per bushel.

Globally, global coarse grain production in 2022/23 was revised down by 7.3 million mt to 1,446.4 million mt, mainly due to lower production in Argentina and Brazil. Argentina's maize production is expected to be 52 million tonnes, down 3 million tonnes from 55 million tonnes in December, as high temperatures and droughts in December and early January reduced the yield potential of early-planted maize in the central main producing regions. Brazilian corn production was revised down to 125 million tonnes, down 1 million tonnes from the previous month, due to dry weather in some of Brazil's southern maize producing regions. According to the latest sown area and yield data from China's National Bureau of Statistics, China's corn production was revised up to 277.2 million tons from 274 million tons.

Major adjustments to global coarse grain trade in 2022/23 include an increase in the forecast for corn exports from Ukraine to 20.5 million mt from 17.5 million mt last month, an increase in corn exports from 41 million mt to 38 million mt from 41 million mt in Argentina and a downward revision from 52.71 million mt last month to 48.9 million mt. Global corn ending stocks are expected to be 296.4 million tonnes, down 2 million tonnes from the previous month and down 3.1% year-on-year.

U.S. net corn sales for 2022/23 were 260,000 mt in the week ended Jan. 5, 20% lower than last week and 62% below the four-week average, according to the USDA's weekly export sales report. Net sales in 2023/24 were 20,000 tonnes. U.S. corn export sales totalled 22 million mt so far in 2022/23, down 46.9% from a year earlier, compared with a 47.0% year-on-year decline the week before. Total U.S. corn sales to China so far in 2022/23 (those loaded and not yet loaded) were 3.86 million mt, down 68.7% year-on-year and down 69.7% year-on-year the week before.

Argentina's worst drought in 60 years prompted the Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) to cut Argentina's corn production by 10 million mt in 2022/23, from an earlier estimate of 55 million mt to 45 million mt. The corn crop is in dire need of precipitation at the moment, but weather forecasts indicate no possibility of significant rainfall as of Jan. 18. Rainfall in Argentina will remain below normal in February and March, with the worst rainfall areas in the south-central part of the Pembas plain.

Brazil's National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) lowered its 2022/23 corn production forecast by 800,000 mt to 125.06 million mt, up 10.5% year-on-year. CONAB forecasted first-season corn production of 26.46 million mt, down from an estimate of 27.2 million mt last month due to erratic rainfall in some areas. The forecast for second-crop corn production remained unchanged at 96.27 million mt.

Chicago Agricultural Resources Brazil expects total Brazilian corn production of 125 million mt in 2022/23, down 2.09% from earlier estimates due to downward revisions to planted acreage and yields. The area planted with maize in the first season was revised down by 1.53% to 4.42 million hectares. Yield figures have also been adjusted, mainly due to lack of rainfall in the southern Brazilian states, which delayed planting.

Brazil's corn shipments to China have exceeded 1 million mt so far in January, which will push corn exports to a record high in the same period in January, according to the Brazilian Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC). ANEC revised its January forecast for Brazilian corn exports to 5.024 million mt, up from 4.326 million mt forecast the previous week, reflecting a surge in exports to China. The latest export estimate is well above January's 2.2 million mt, although still lower than December's 5.83 million mt. For the full year 2022, Brazilian corn exports were a record 43.17 million mt, up from 20.6 million mt in 2021. In addition to the bumper harvest of the second crop of corn in 2021/22, China's opening of its market to Brazilian corn due to the disruption of Black Sea exports due to the conflict in Ukraine contributed to the growth of Brazilian corn exports.

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