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Global wheat market: U.S. wheat stocks are declining, global supplies are abundant, and wheat prices are mixed

 foodmate 2023-01-17

Foreign media news on January 15: In the week ending January 13, 2023, global wheat prices were mixed, with U.S. wheat futures rising as U.S. wheat ending stocks fell and corn and soybeans rose to boost prices, and the dollar fell sharply. However, U.S. winter wheat acreage in 2023 will rise to an eight-year high, and global wheat supplies will continue to weigh on wheat prices.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March soft red winter wheat futures closed at about $7.4375 a bushel on Friday, up 0.03% from a week ago. March hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at about $8.4375/bu, up 1.4 percent from a week ago. The March hard red spring wheat futures of the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at about $9.1225/bu, up 1.2 percent from a week ago. Euronext's March 2023 futures closed at around 288.75 euros/mt, down 3.7% from a week ago; Argentine wheat spot quotations were $365/mt, down 2.1% from a week ago.

The ICE dollar index closed at 101.946 on Friday, falling to a more than seven-month low and down 1.6 percent from a week ago.

The USDA's January supply and demand report showed that feed and other use of U.S. wheat was revised up by 30 million bushels due to increased use in the second quarter of 2022/23. The increase in seed use was raised by 3 million bushels, reflecting a larger-than-expected winter wheat planting area. Wheat ending stocks for 2022/23 were revised down to 567 million bushels from 571 million bushels in the previous month, down 18.8% year-on-year. The 2022/23 U.S. wheat farm average price estimate remains unchanged at $9.10 per bushel.

The USDA expects 36.95 million acres of U.S. winter wheat to be planted in 2023, up 11% year-over-year and hitting an eight-year high and beating analysts' expectations. Hard red winter wheat acreage is expected to increase 10% year-over-year to 25.3 million acres; Soft red winter wheat acreage increased by 20% to 7.9 million acres. White winter wheat area increased by 3% to 3.73 million acres.

The USDA raised global wheat supply for 2022/23 by 1.3 million mt to 1,058.1 million mt, mainly due to an upward revision to 21 million mt from 20.5 million mt forecast last month, and EU wheat production estimate to 134.7 million mt from 134.3 million mt. Wheat production estimates for other major exporters remained unchanged, with Russian wheat production remaining at 91 million mt, well below official and private expectations of around 100 million mt, US wheat production at 44.9 million mt, Canada 33.82 million mt, Australia 36.6 million mt and Argentina 12.5 million mt. Global wheat trade in 2022/23 was revised up by 800,000 mt to 211.6 million mt, as exports from the EU and Ukraine grew faster than India's decline. Wheat exports from the EU and Ukraine were each revised up by 500,000 mt to 36.5 million mt and 13 million mt respectively, due to higher export supplies. Global wheat ending stocks in 2022/23 were revised up by 1.1 million mt to 268.4 million mt, down 3% year-on-year.

In its first monthly report this year, the International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for global wheat production for 2022/23, mainly due to higher-than-expected wheat production in Ukraine. Global wheat production forecast for 2022/23 is forecast to increase by 5 million mt to a record 796 million mt, an increase of about 1.92% year-on-year. Ukraine's wheat production is expected to be 25.2 million tons, up 3.7 million tons or 17.21% from the previous forecast of 21.5 million tons, but still far below the previous year's 33 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 23.64%. The IGC also expects little change in global wheat acreage in 2023/24, but is expected to see global production fall to 788 million tonnes, down 1% y-o-y.

Indian wheat production is set to reach record levels in 2023 as historically high wheat prices encourage farmers to use high-yielding seeds to expand their planting acreage, and good weather conditions also help increase crop yields. Janandra Singh, director of the Indian Wheat and Barley Research Institute, said wheat production could reach 112 million tonnes this year. Increased wheat production in India could encourage the government to consider lifting the wheat export ban imposed in May last year. Last March's heatwave reduced wheat production to 106.84 million mt in 2022, down from 109.59 million mt the previous year. Despite the export ban, Indian wheat prices have continued to rise, suggesting that last year's wheat production cut more than the government expected.

Russian wheat exports in the first half of 2022/23 were estimated at 23.5 million mt, up from 21.6 million mt a year earlier, according to a report by Moscow-based analyst agency IKAR. IKAR estimates Russia's wheat production for 2022/23 to reach a record 101.5 million mt, up 34% year-on-year. In the first months of the year, the pace of Russian exports was slow, lagging behind the level of the same period last year. Exports then began to accelerate sharply, peaking at 5.6 million tonnes in October and November.

U.S. net wheat sales for 2022/23 were 90,000 mt in the week ended Jan. 5, 93% higher than last week but 73% below the four-week average, according to the weekly U.S. export sales report. Net sales in 2023/24 were 15,000 tonnes. U.S. wheat export sales totalled 15.06 million mt so far in 2022/23, down 6.7% year-on-year.

Strategic Grains this week expects EU wheat production to reach 129.3 million mt in 2023, up from 128.7 million mt forecast in December and 3% higher than in 2022. Winter wheat in the EU27 is currently in good condition, with planted acreage slightly above the five-year average. The company noted that higher wheat production will boost supply next year, although export demand is expected to be dampened by export competition and economic pressures.

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