September 24th report:
[Key Takeaway] Ethanol is currently exhibiting a short-term, choppy, bearish rebound. It remains at the upper end of its 60-day cycle, limiting further upside in the near term. Support comes from plant maintenance and narrowing import flows, while the likelihood of a sharp downside correction remains low.
The latest available data is up to September 23, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Average Difference Change Table
| Difference Type | Value as of 2026.09.23 | Value as of 2026.09.22 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | 2.67 | 4.00 | - |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | 3.50 | 3.22 | + |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | 17.80 | 19.81 | - |
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current situation is a rebound signal (biased towards bearish) in a volatile market.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The short-term trend is choppy (bearish).
Reason: The changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, which meets the criteria for a volatile market according to the average difference method. The combination of signs is (-, +, -), indicating a bearish rebound signal. Additionally, with current ethanol prices at a high level and no significant increase in downstream demand, only an 89.79% month-on-month decrease in imports in August and a 200,000-ton plant maintenance by COFCO in Guangxi provide some cost support. Overall, the trend is volatile and bearish.
4. Positional Space Reference
The 60-day cycle price of ethanol is at the 5th level out of 5 (high), with limited short-term upside potential; the 3-month and 1-year cycle prices are both at the 3rd level out of 5 (median), with limited medium- to long-term downside potential.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
