The arrival of the peak consumption season stimulates PTA prices to rise

Global market sentiment picks up

　　Since this year, the prosperity of the global textile and apparel market has fallen sharply relative to previous years. According to customs data, in July, my country's textile and apparel exports were US$31.294 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.74%. Among them, the export value of textiles (including textile yarn, fabrics and products) was 15.976 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 48.38%; the export value of clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) was 15.317.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 8.54%. The year-on-year growth rates of textiles in April, May, and June were 49.36%, 77.34%, and 56.72%, respectively, and the year-on-year declines in clothing were 30.31%, 26.95%, and 10.2%. The improvement of overseas epidemics has reduced the demand for epidemic prevention materials, while the decline in domestic clothing exports has significantly reduced, indicating that the increase in economic activities in major global markets has increased the demand for clothing.

　　 Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in July, the total retail sales of textiles and apparel nationwide reached 88.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.5% compared to the same period last year; from January to July, the total retail sales of textiles and apparel exceeded 595.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%. The textile and apparel retail data in July was relatively bleak, mainly because the domestic textile and apparel market was in the off-season. According to the results of the Circulation Branch of the China Textile Industry Federation, the prosperity index of the national textile and apparel professional market managers in July was 48.76%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points from 47.96% in June; the professional market merchants’ prosperity index was 49.31%, which was 6 The month’s 48.82% increased by 0.49 percentage points. This means that sentiment in the domestic textile market has rebounded.

　　 Downstream companies continue to de-stock

According to the survey report by Zhuochuang on the recovery of orders in all aspects of the polyester terminal in mid-August, the number of days of raw material inventory of the investigated companies is concentrated in 10-20 days, accounting for 33.3%, and the number of days of raw material inventory is the least in 30-40 days, accounting for The ratio is 1.9%. According to the survey results at the end of May, the companies with raw material inventory in 10-20 days accounted for the most, accounting for 41.2%; the companies in 30-40 days accounted for 20.6%. From this analysis, since the end of May, most companies have maintained a destocking state of raw material inventory. And since August, with the gradual fulfillment of the PTA devices previously announced for maintenance, the PTA social inventory has declined slightly for two consecutive weeks. At the same time, the maintenance of devices in September and October will ease the loose supply of PTA.

From the perspective of downstream polyester inventory, the current inventory of finished products in downstream factories is mostly concentrated in 10-30 days. Although it is still at a relatively high level compared to previous years, compared with the survey report at the end of May, the finished product inventory of more than half of the surveyed companies is 30 days. The above has improved significantly.

　　The cost end supports the PTA price

　　 Since the end of April, the continuous rebound of crude oil prices has led to an increase in the cost of PTA, which rebounded from a minimum of RMB 2,965/ton at the end of April to around RMB 3,500/ton at present. Global economic activity gradually resumes, and demand for crude oil will also slowly increase. On the supply side, the OPEC+ production reduction agreement will continue, and the overall implementation rate will not change much; given that the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the United States is still not optimistic, the recovery of the US shale oil industry will also be suppressed. In this context, crude oil prices are expected to show a strong oscillating trend in the second half of the year, and the center of gravity of prices will rise slowly. Stronger oil prices will support PTA prices that were originally undervalued.

　　 In summary, as the global consumer market improves and the superimposed "Golden Nine, Silver and Ten" consumption peak season arrives, terminal textile and apparel demand will improve, which will stimulate PTA prices to rise.