Improved Supply-Demand Dynamics Drive PTA Prices to Fluctuate and Rise in November

November 27th, according to news from China,

The supply and demand situation improved in a phased manner, and PTA prices fluctuated upwards in November. According to the commodity market analysis system, the PTA market in China showed a slight upward trend in November, with consolidation in the second half of the month. As of November 26, the spot price of PTA in the East China region was 4,628 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.86% from the beginning of the month.

Despite OPEC+’s latest round of production increases, the crude oil market remains concerned about the long-term risk of supply surplus. Although regional tensions have eased somewhat and U.S. demand has weakened, ongoing U.S. tariff issues continue to weigh on the global economy and dampen demand expectations, causing international crude oil prices to fluctuate and decline. As of November 26, the settlement price for the January contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $58.65 per barrel, while the settlement price for the February contract of Brent crude oil futures was $62.54 per barrel.

On the supply side, short-term PTA processing fees remain relatively low, and inventory levels continue to stay low. At the end of the month, Honggang Petrochemical’s 2.5-million-ton PTA plant will resume operations, but Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2-million-ton plant remains shut down, and some other units are still undergoing maintenance. As a result, China’s overall supply continues to decline, with the industry’s operating rate at 73%. Additionally, following the removal of BIS restrictions, exports from mainstream suppliers have significantly increased, leading to tighter spot market liquidity.

Downstream polyester production is ramping up in stages, and several new units are still expected to come on stream before the New Year. Coupled with plans to restart some existing polyester plants and relatively low inventory pressure at polyester filament factories, overall demand remains rigid, driving steady procurement activity. In the downstream weaving sector, as winter apparel orders have largely been fulfilled, demand has remained subdued. Overseas procurement from China has gradually slowed down, and there’s insufficient momentum for new orders. At the end of the month, the comprehensive operating rate for weaving enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta region stood at 66%, and some weaving companies still anticipate further reductions in production capacity.

Analysts believe that in the short term, geopolitical instability will increase oil price risks, potentially supporting oil prices. There is an increase in supply, but supply and demand remain in a tight balance. However, there are many external unstable factors, and commodity trends are at an impasse. Additionally, with terminal demand entering the off-season, the momentum for further price increases is insufficient. It is expected that PTA prices in November will mainly undergo fluctuating adjustments.