In early August, the price rose strongly, and in mid-August, the price fell back slightly and rose again strongly.
I. Market Overview
1.1 DMC Market Trend
Price Trend of DMC in China in 2019-2020
In August, the overall price of dimethyl carbonate showed a strong upward trend. The price of propylene oxide at the raw material end is still rising strongly, putting greater pressure on the dimethyl carbonate plant and strong support for costs. In August, some of the factories in the market stopped down and the prices of in-production factories passively followed up, and the market's focus increased. In mid-August, the price of propylene oxide continued to rise, but the demand for dimethyl carbonate was general, and the price fell slightly. From late August to the end of August, the price of propylene oxide continued to rise, and there were still equipment shutdowns on the site for maintenance. The downstream polycarbonate procurement support, coupled with the abnormal increase of South Korean Lotte production from China, resulted in domestic dimethyl carbonate inventory. Tension, prices have risen sharply.As of now, the price of DMC barrels is FOB1235 USD / ton.
1.2 DMC Spot Price
Price Trend of DMC in 2020
1. The price in August increased by US$201-345 compared to July.Prices have increased substantially.
2. In August , the exchange rate between RMB and USD was 6.95 to 6.8, which has a greater impact on DMC
prices, and the price gap is about 20 US dollars.
II. DMC plant installations
In August, a set of equipment with an annual capacity of 50,000 tons was shut down for maintenance, and individual factories reduced the load, and the overall operating rate was about 69.95%. In September, a set of 80,000 tons of equipment was planned to be overhauled for 15 days, and a 90,000 tons of equipment was planned to be overhauled. The 50,000 tons of equipment that was previously suspended is expected to start in mid-September. Although the two new process plants have produced qualified products, However, the production load has not yet been raised, and it is expected that it will take some time for the load to be put into the market. However, if the high cost and low demand conditions continue, or some factories have routine hedging maintenance, the overall operating rate in September is expected to be around 68%.
III. Raw Material
Price Trend of PO in China in 2020.8
In August, the propylene oxide market continued to rise. With high profits throughout the month, changes in the raw materials have little impact on the market, and the market focuses on the fundamentals of supply and demand. The supply-side PO factories basically maintained high-load production this month, with a monthly operating rate close to 90%. On the import side, the supply of Saudi and South Korean goods has gradually recovered, and it has also increased compared with the previous June and July. On the demand side, the downstream main force polyether is exported. Driven, especially in the first half of the month, the performance was better, the purchase of goods was active, and the PO factory shipped smoothly. At the beginning of the month, the price rose rapidly by 30-40 US dollars/ton every day, breaking through the high price in two years, and then accompanied by some imports in mid-August The arrival of goods at the port eased the tension, and polyether orders appeared to fall, the market became weak and slightly loosened, but some of the orders were not paid in the early stage, and the downstream polyether manufacturers moderately replenish the stock. The PO factory inventory has been difficult to accumulate, and the market is easy to rise and hard to fall. . In late August, there were still intermittent and small rises above the high. The
downstream polyether felt that there was no hope of lowering prices, and took out stocks to replenish warehouses. The inventory of PO factories was low and continued to rise.
Demand Analysis
Traditional demand: The demand for coating solvents was mainly in East and South China. Because the price of DMC far exceeds that of related products, ethyl acetate, the traditional downstream basically replaces the formula and replaces it with other esters and benzene solvents. The current DMC price is high, and the traditional downstream is mainly waiting and watching to reduce the amount.
Polycarbonate: The polycarbonate plant with DMC supporting equipment has a stable output of about 300-600 tons per month. The main polycarbonate plant is subject to moderate bidding, and the demand is relatively stable. The remaining polycarbonate factories just need to get the goods, and the demand is relatively stable.
Electrolyte: The rigid demand is mainly in northeastern China.
IV. Summary
In September, a set of 80,000 tons of equipment on the supply side of dimethyl carbonate was scheduled to be overhauled for 15 days, and a 90,000 tons of equipment was planned to be overhauled. The 50,000 tons of equipment that was suspended in the early stage is expected to start in mid-September. Although the two new process plants Qualified products have been produced, but production has not yet been increased. It is expected that it will take some time before the increase is put into the market. On the demand side, the traditional peak season in September is expected to have a certain rebound in demand. In the polycarbonate sector, some devices have started to purchase recently, and rigid demand is the focus. The traditional
downstream is more cautious in the face of high DMC prices. The overall expectation is that the DMC market will have costs in September. Support prices are firm and there is still an upward trend.
