2020 chemical market trend: production capacity

The petrochemical market in 2020 is divided into two phases. The first phase is 1-2 quarters. The petrochemical industry is in a cycle of severe price fluctuations. Under the influence of the epidemic, it has experienced a collective dive of petrochemical bulk under the guidance of the leading brother crude oil; 3-4 quarters, The petrochemical industry is in a recovery cycle, and the overall recovery of petrochemical bulk has encountered intensive refining and production.

In 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, the rise and fall of crude oil will have an increasing impact on the prices of petrochemical products. The demand for medical supplies such as masks/protective clothing will increase explosively, and the production capacity of polypropylene medical materials and non-woven fabrics will be rapidly activated.

In 2020, a large number of integrated refining and chemical projects such as Hengli Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Zhongke Refinery, Liaoning Baolai, Yantai Wanhua, and Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical will be put into operation one after another. According to statistics from Jinlianchuang, among the major chemical products in 2020, ethylene glycol has the largest increase in production capacity, with an increase of 40.37%; again is the by-product of ethylene glycol, diethylene glycol, with an increase of 35.89%; and then styrene, production capacity The growth rate reached 28.44%; in addition, the production capacity of major refining and chemical products such as phenol, acetone, toluene, xylene, pure benzene, ethylene, and PTA also increased by more than 20%. As a large number of refining and chemical integration projects have been put into operation one after another, the supply of some chemical products has grown rapidly, the contradiction of oversupply has become more prominent, and the profits of the industrial chain have continued to fall or shift.

2020 Chemical Industry Annual Report: Production Capacity

Among the 81 varieties monitored by Jinlianchuang, the production of 7 varieties will be reduced in 2020, the production capacity of 16 varieties will not change, and the production capacity of 58 varieties will increase. In 2019, the production of 12 varieties decreased, the production capacity of 16 varieties remained unchanged, and the production capacity of 53 varieties increased.

Interpretation

In recent years, private large-scale refining and chemical operations have been concentrated, and related olefin and aromatic chain production capacity has increased significantly.

From this, we can find that not only the production capacity of PTA, xylene, ethylene, PP, propylene, ethylene glycol, PE, PX and other products involved in large-scale refining and chemical industry has increased significantly, the production capacity of synthetic ammonia has also increased significantly.

01
Synthetic ammonia

The increase in synthetic ammonia production capacity is mainly due to the fact that some enterprises in Shandong, Henan and other regions have responded to the national call to promote the conversion of new and old kinetic energy and technologically transform existing and old synthetic ammonia production lines to reduce the production cost of downstream products and improve energy utilization, profitability and net Return on Assets.

At the same time, although some products are not enough to enter the top ten of the increase in capacity changes, they have an amazing increase in the capacity change rate rankings, such as diethylene glycol, PC, and epichlorohydrin. The capacity change rates are 35.89%, 26.80% and 25.47%, respectively. .

02
Diethylene glycol

Due to the co-production of diethylene glycol and ethylene glycol, the continuous increase in ethylene glycol production capacity represents an increase in domestic production and output of diethylene glycol. In 2020, diethylene glycol has entered a year of rapid expansion. During the year, the newly-added production capacity of ethylene glycol reached 3.45 million tons, and the production capacity of diethylene glycol involved increased by 270 thousand tons. As the large-scale refining and chemical plants of many domestic enterprises have been put into operation, especially the 1.8 million tons/year petroleum-to-ethylene glycol plants of Dalian Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 750,000 tons/year have been launched, greatly improving the domestic petroleum production of ethylene glycol. Alcohol production capacity.

03
PC

With the development of the country, the downstream demand for PC has been increasing year by year, coupled with the domestic PC's foreign dependence as high as 70% and the support of national policies, domestic petrochemical plants have been involved in the PC field. Domestic PC production capacity is growing rapidly. 2020 is the third consecutive year of growth of up to 20%. The next two years will still be the time when PC production capacity will blow out.

04
Epichlorohydrin

At the end of 2018, the main epichlorohydrin plant was shut down in Haili, and there has been no news of restarting in 2019. As a result, the market is seriously out of stock. After the start of new projects in 2019, the new capacity will be released in 2020. In 2020, with the country's strong support for the wind power industry, the demand for epoxy resins has soared, and the new capacity of epoxy resins is also increasing, and epichlorohydrin is a necessary raw material for epoxy resins. Therefore, it has strengthened the company's confidence in adding epichlorohydrin.