Under the chemical 'differentiation', when will the spring of ethylene glycol co

At the beginning of the Year of the Ox, looking back at last year's futures market, the "coal" was dancing and the bean market was skyrocketing, and the waves were magnificent and vivid. Among the many varieties, although the chemical varieties have been locally strong several times, they are really insignificant compared to non-ferrous and agricultural products. As a representative product in the chemical industry, ethylene glycol seems to be showing signs of upward trend in recent months. However, in recent trading days, it has been slightly weakened due to the fall in upstream crude oil prices. As the New Year’s bell has sounded, will the chemical sector relay forward under the lead of the Year of the Ox? What is the outlook for ethylene glycol? As of the close on Tuesday, January 26, 2021, the main 05 contract of ethylene glycol futures was reported at 4,310 yuan, a slight drop of 0.37%.

The proximal end starts a small round, the distal end pressure still exists

From the perspective of the supply side, according to relevant news, the Fujian United Glycol Unit restarted this week (January 18-January 22), but Fude Energy and Tongliao Jinmei’s units were shut down for maintenance, and the glycol operating rate was affected. This impact declined. According to data from Longzhong, as of January 22, the domestic ethylene-based ethylene glycol production load was approximately 55.68%, a decrease of 2.56 percentage points from the previous Friday; the non-ethylene-based ethylene glycol production load was approximately 43.39%, compared The previous Thursday fell by 2.6 percentage points. On the whole, ethylene glycol has started to decline recently, which may support disk prices.

On the other hand, next week, Tongliao Jinmei, Ningbo Fude, Duzishan Petrochemical and other facilities will be restarted one after another, and domestic supply tends to recover slightly. In terms of new devices, Shaanxi Weihe Binzhou Chemical’s 300,000-ton plant is scheduled to be commissioned at the end of January and is expected to be discharged in February; Jianyuan Coal Coking’s 300,000-ton plant is scheduled to start up in February, and the remote supply pressure will increase.

Polyester start-up has declined, and downstream demand is limited

In terms of downstream demand, the domestic polyester comprehensive start-up load remained stable at 85.46%, the domestic weaving load declined, and the weaving start-up dropped. This is mainly due to the fact that the Chinese New Year is approaching, and polyester and terminal manufacturing are expected to decrease seasonally. Specifically, the comprehensive operating rate of polyester staple fiber was 84.23%, down 4.87% from last week; the load on the weaving operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell by 24.05% to 50.35%. It can be seen that the start-up of downstream weaving mills has declined in the short term, and the demand has declined slightly, and the pulling effect is limited.

The main port inventory continues to deplete, but subsequent imports may lead to phased "stock accumulation"

Looking back at the overall inventory situation of the main East China port of ethylene glycol in 2020, the process of "accumulating" and then "destocking" is basically present. At the beginning of 2020, mainly affected by the sharp decline in imports in the fourth quarter of 19, the main port inventory fell by about 450,000 tons, hitting a five-year low. Then during the Spring Festival, due to the rebound of imports and weakening demand, overseas epidemics spread, and a large number of cheap B2 Alcohol flows into my country, and inventories continue to rise.

Since mid-to-late 2020, due to centralized repairs and inspections of overseas installations, imports have declined, and the main port of East China has continued to go to warehouses, and the inventory is still declining. According to grand data, as of January 21, the total inventory of MEG ports in East China's main port area was 667,300 tons, a decrease of 53,500 tons from Monday and 41,100 tons from last Thursday. Although the inventory has fallen, it is expected that in the first quarter, with the rebound in imports and the increase in polyester maintenance during the Spring Festival, the main port of ethylene glycol in East China may once again accumulate in the warehouse.

Based on the above viewpoints, it can be seen that due to the drag of the upstream crude oil system and the combined effects of poor demand, the price has fallen. But at present, with the slight decline in supply and the favorable support brought by the destocking of inventories, the decline in the price of ethylene glycol may be limited. In the later stage, with the resumption of production of old devices, the restart of new devices, and the expected existence of accumulated libraries, there will be a greater probability of favoring weak operation.