2024 French Wheat Crash Warning: Lowest Yield in 41 Years, 10-Dollar Per Ton Price Surge, Global Food Market Turmoil Intensifies!

In the 34th week of 2024, French wheat spot prices experienced a rise, rebounding from multi-month lows at the beginning of the week. The change was attributed to the negative impact of rainy weather on French wheat yield and quality indicators. With the end of the harvest season, several agencies have lowered their forecasts for EU wheat production.

As of August 29, the price of first-class French wheat delivered at the port of Rouen, France, reached $234 / ton, an increase of $10 from the previous week. Prices over the past year have ranged from $209 to $277 a tonne. Argentina's Upper River second class wheat price at $267 / ton, down $5 from the previous week; Us 2 hard red winter wheat was quoted at $252 / ton, up $8; U.S. soft red winter wheat No. 2 was quoted at $220 / ton, up $7.

From the trend of the futures market, on Friday, the most actively traded December wheat futures on Euronext closed at 216.5 euros/ton, up 7.75 euros, or 3.71%, from the previous week, which is also the first rise in three weeks; Wheat futures in Chicago are up 4.45% over the same period.

This week, several agencies cut their forecasts for 2024/25 EU wheat production. On Thursday, the European Commission cut its 2024/25 EU soft wheat production forecast by 4.7 million tonnes to a four-year low of 116.1 million tonnes, down from 120.8 million tonnes a month ago; At the same time, the EU wheat export forecast was significantly lowered by 6 million tons to 26 million tons.

On August 8, France's Strategic Grains lowered its 2024/25 EU soft wheat production forecast to 116.5 million tonnes, down 5.8 million tonnes from its July forecast and down 8.4% year-on-year to the lowest level in nearly six years. Wheat exports are expected to be 26.9 million tonnes, down 20% from 33.6 million tonnes in 2023/24. On August 9, the French Ministry of Agriculture forecast a 2024/25 French soft wheat production of 26.3 million tons, down from 29.65 million tons forecast last month, down 25 percent from a year earlier and the lowest production since 1986. On August 12, the US Department of Agriculture lowered its 2024/25 EU wheat production forecast to 128 million tonnes, down from 130 million tonnes forecast last month and down 5.1% from 134.87 million tonnes in 2023/24 (134.15 million tonnes forecast last month). At the same time, the import and export expectations and inventory forecasts of wheat have also been adjusted. On August 25, the grain trade data released by the European Commission showed that as of August 25, the 2020/25 (July-June) EU wheat exports were 3.93 million tons (3.55 million tons last week), down 22% year-on-year, with the main destination Egypt down 12.8%; Wheat imports in the same period were 950,000 tonnes (810,000 tonnes last week), down 7% year-on-year, with Ukraine, the main supplier, accounting for 58.6%. On August 28, the French Agricultural Agency (FranceAgriMer) released news that the two key flour indicators of French soft wheat this year - bulk density and protein content have declined, and provided relevant specific data. On August 29, the European Commission forecast the 2020/25 EU soft wheat production of 1160.96 million tons, 4.72 million tons lower than the July forecast, the lowest value in four years; At the same time, expectations for imports, exports and ending inventories were also adjusted. On the same day, consulting firm Argus Media said that French wheat production in 2024/25 is expected to be 25.17 million tons, down 27.3 percent from the five-year average and the lowest in 41 years, and forecast France's soft wheat exports to third countries. From August 23 to August 28, the fund increased its bearish bets on the EU wheat futures market. In the week ended August 28, France's main wheat export port Rouen's milling wheat exports also received attention. On August 30, the euro traded at $1.1050, down 1.29% from a nearly one-year high of $1.1194 reached a week earlier. At the same time, it provides the movement of the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar so far this year and compares it with 2023.