DOP Prices Surge 6.45% Before and After National Day! Market Faces Adjustment Risks as Downstream Acceptance Declines

In the period before and after the National Day, the plasticizer dioctyl phthalate (DOP) market showed a trend of jumping high and going high, and its rising power mainly came from the cost support brought by the tight supply of octanol and the rising price. According to the data released by the business community, as of October 11, the reference price of the DOP market has reached 9,288.75 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of September, an increase of 6.45%, specifically an increase of 562.5 yuan/ton.

For the DOP market's subsequent trend, the industry is generally cautious. Recently, the raw material market has shown signs of correction, cost support has loosened, and the acceptance of high-priced supplies in downstream markets has gradually decreased, which together increase the risk of a fall in the DOP market.

Looking back at September, the DOP market, after a long half-year of price declines, finally ushered in the traditional peak season in September. However, the market price trend in the month showed a "W" shape, that is, the first down and then up and then back, and finally rose again. Under the continuous promotion of the cost side, the downstream DOP and exporters began to concentrate on replenishment, and the factory traded volume, and the market price went up. But then there was a degree of correction.

After entering October, the DOP market increased further. This is mainly due to the tight spot supply of octanol after the holiday, and the strong price sentiment of the main factory, which has a significant boost to the cost of DOP. However, it is worth noting that although the cost side is the main factor supporting the upside of the DOP market in this round, if the octanol market weakens after the market, the DOP market will not have enough momentum to continue to rise.

From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the DOP market continues to face challenges. As the DOP price continues to rise, the acceptance capacity of the downstream market gradually weakens, and the market faces greater resistance to further rise. In addition, according to the practice of previous years, November to December is the traditional production off-season of downstream PVC wire and cable industries, and the procurement of raw materials will be weakened, which will also have a certain impact on the DOP market demand side.

Combined with the above factors, the industry generally believes that the DOP market in the later stage, whether it is the cost side or the demand side, is showing a weak situation. Manufacturers may focus on shipping and take profit sales strategies. At the same time, in view of the impact of short-term load reduction or shutdown of some DOP devices, the market may show a small shock correction trend.