Methanol market prices mainly on the rise in China

September 12, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from September 5 to 12 (as of 10:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese methanol market rose from 2,271 CNY/ton to around 2,288 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 0.73% during the period, a month-on-month decrease of 4.02%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.88%. The price increase in the Chinese methanol market is significant, mainly due to the firmness of olefins in the domestic market, increased external purchases, and low enterprise inventories leading to a low supply of available goods. Downstream and trading activities have been actively following the buy-high mentality.

As of the close on September 12, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange showed a strong fluctuation. The MA2601 contract opened at 2,398 CNY/ton, reached a high of 2,422 CNY/ton, and a low of 2,381 CNY/ton, closing at 2,407 CNY/ton, an increase of 10 CNY/ton from the previous day's settlement. By the close, the open interest for the MA2601 contract was 756,000 lots, a decrease of 12,700 lots from the previous trading day.

Methanol Spot vs Futures Comparison Chart:

As of September 12, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

On the cost front, coal supply remains stable, but demand is lagging behind, fueling growing bearish market sentiment and weakening cost-side support. The methanol market is currently weighed down by predominantly negative cost factors.

Coal/Steam Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Demand Side:
Glacial acetic acid: Market prices for glacial acetic acid remain largely stable, with most manufacturers adjusting shipments based on their own operational conditions. Currently, sales pressure at factories is manageable.
Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is steady but trending slightly upward. Major production regions have initiated small price hikes driven by rising costs, which buyers are generally willing to accept. Downstream demand continues to meet basic needs.
Dimethyl Ether: The dimethyl ether market is operating steadily. Meanwhile, methanol prices have surged broadly, pushing up costs significantly. However, in Henan, dimethyl ether prices struggle to rise further due to weak downstream demand. Most downstream products are influenced by methanol prices, leading to a mixed outlook for overall demand—some segments show positive signs, while others remain cautious.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Supply Side: Xinjiang Yankuang, Shandong Union, Yankuang Guohong, Xinjiang Zhongtai, and Ningxia Baofeng are undergoing plant maintenance; Xinjiang Zhongtai and Jinmei Huayu have reduced production; Shanghai-Mongolia Energy and Shandong Union have resumed operations. The overall recovery volume is less than the loss volume, leading to a decrease in the capacity utilization rate. The supply side of methanol is influenced by positive factors.

On the international front, as of the close on September 11, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $321.5–$322.5 per ton. The FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market settled at 94–95 cents per gallon; meanwhile, the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market ended at €292.5–€293.5 per ton, down by €1 per ton.

Looking ahead, it appears that the current methanol market is in a relatively stalemate, driven by a combination of multiple factors. Methanol analysts expect China's spot methanol market to remain largely stable for now.