MTBE Market Trend Consolidates Weakly

On September 26, Chinese cyclists won the championship of the 13th International Cycling Race around Poyang Lake in Ganzhou Shangyou station, with racers crossing the finish line one after another. In other sports news, Zhang Shuai won in the Chinese derby, but no male singles players advanced to the next round; Kaszo will face the 7th seed, Czech player Menšík, in the next match.

According to the commodity market analysis system, from September 19 to 26, the price of MTBE dropped from 5,177 CNY/ton to 5,072 CNY/ton, marking a price decrease of 2.03% over the period. However, compared to the previous week, prices rose by 1.25%, while year-on-year, they remained down by 7.86%. Meanwhile, the Chinese MTBE market experienced volatile yet upward movement. Terminal demand has shown signs of recovery, with MTBE trading activity picking up significantly. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream end-user companies are gradually starting to stock up moderately, contributing to an overall positive trading atmosphere in the MTBE market.

MTBE China production price average trend chart:

Cost Perspective: On the crude oil front, international oil prices have risen, driven primarily by the following positive factors: the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to pose potential supply risks, while U.S. sanctions targeting certain oil-producing countries may escalate further. Additionally, declining commercial crude oil inventories in the U.S. have provided additional support for oil prices. As of September 25, the settlement price for the December Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at $68.58 per barrel.

Demand Side: On the downstream gasoline front, international crude oil futures initially declined before rebounding, leading to a halt in the downward trend of refined oil prices and triggering a subsequent recovery. Refineries have taken advantage of the current pre-holiday inventory-building sentiment gripping the oil market, collectively pushing up fuel prices—though the extent of these price increases has moderated somewhat. Meanwhile, midstream and downstream traders are gradually entering the market to stock up, resulting in a generally mild trading atmosphere. Meanwhile, demand for MTBE remains supported by favorable factors.

Supply side: Shandong Chengtai may have a shutdown plan, leading to a slight decrease in resource supply. In the short term, the supply side of MTBE in China is influenced by positive factors.

As of September 25, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected production companies:

As of the close on September 25, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market increased by $6.95/ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore at $673.91-675.91/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $14.75/ton from the previous trading day, with FOB ARA at $851.74-852.24/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market increased by $6.91/ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Gulf at $833.77-834.12/ton (235.42-235.52 cents/gallon).

Market Forecast: Raw material prices may see sporadic adjustments, but cost pressures remain. Finished oil prices are likely to stay on the weaker side, as market sentiment remains cautious and watchful. Before the holiday period, manufacturers have been actively working to clear inventories and boost sales, while downstream buyers are maintaining moderate purchasing levels. However, as the holidays draw nearer, restocking activities among industry players are nearing their end. An MTBE analyst notes that the Chinese MTBE market is expected to experience primarily volatile price movements.