July 14th, it was reported that
At the beginning of the month, market conditions were relatively stable, with price fluctuations remaining modest and trading activity within the market remaining subdued. As the middle of the month approached, positive market factors began to emerge in concentrated fashion, prompting spot prices to enter a sustained upward trend. Manufacturers in the industry displayed strong bullish sentiment in the short term, and the overall market atmosphere turned decidedly bullish. Changes in geopolitical situations and stronger performance in related futures markets further fueled the rapid rise in prices, significantly boosting market trading activity compared to the earlier period. According to data from the commodity market analysis system, from July 1 to 14, 2026, China’s butadiene spot price rose from 8,866.67 CNY per ton to 9,833.33 CNY per ton, representing a cumulative increase of 10.9%.
Cost Perspective: Recently, international crude oil prices have generally been on the rise, driving up the prices of cracking feedstocks accordingly and directly pushing up the overall production costs of butadiene. The supportive effect from the cost side continues to strengthen. The chemical industry chain as a whole is performing well, with related upstream and downstream products showing synchronized price increases. Coupled with the strong trend in futures markets, this continues to boost sentiment in the spot market. As a result, production companies are facing increasing cost pressures, and their willingness to hold prices and sell at higher levels has steadily strengthened, laying a solid foundation for the current round of butadiene price hikes. As of July 13, the settlement price for the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the U.S. was $78.14 per barrel, while the settlement price for the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $83.30 per barrel.
Supply Side: The overall operating load of China's butadiene industry is at a moderate level, with some production units undergoing periodic maintenance, resulting in limited increases in the overall supply of goods. The inventory of major producers remains low, with no significant pressure from stockpiling, and the pace of shipments is smooth. The overall availability of spot goods in the market is not loose, and there is a general sentiment among merchants to hold onto their stocks and support prices. The ongoing tight supply situation continues to provide strong support to the market, further stabilizing the lower price range and helping prices to steadily rise.
Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with 140 tons sold externally at a minimum price of 10,000 CNY/ton.
Satellite Chemical's 90,000 tons/year butadiene unit is operating normally, with 336 tons for external sales, starting at 9800 CNY/ton.
| Company | Price (CNY/ton) | Capacity | Plant Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dongming Petrochemical | 140 tons for external sales, floor price 10,000 CNY/ton | 50,000 tons | Normal operation, stable supply for external sales |
| Satellite Chemical | 336 tons for external sales, starting bid 9,800 CNY/ton | 90,000 tons | Normal operation, stable supply for external sales |
Demand Side:
The overall demand in the downstream rubber industry in China is weak, and the market's overall consumption capacity is insufficient to keep up with the pace of raw material price increases. After the continuous rise in raw material prices, the purchasing mentality of downstream buyers has become more conservative, mainly focusing on buying small quantities as needed, with a lack of willingness to stock up in large volumes proactively. The market acceptance of high-priced goods is low, and the price transmission between upstream and downstream is not smooth. The terminal market is unable to bear the continuously rising raw material prices, and the overall performance of the demand side is weak, making it difficult to provide long-term support to the market trend. This, to some extent, restrains the sustained upward pressure on prices.
Market Outlook:
In the short term, cost-side benefits still exist, and the supply pattern within the market has not shown any significant changes. Coupled with the ongoing bullish sentiment in the industry, it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to maintain a stable and slightly strong trend. However, the current issue of weak market demand support is quite prominent. After a noticeable price increase, downstream resistance is gradually rising, and the market lacks further momentum for price increases. As production facilities resume operations, the market supply is expected to increase, and with the difficulty in following up on the demand side, the upward space for butadiene prices is limited, and there is a possibility of a high-level adjustment. Overall, the market is likely to experience a high-level consolidation.
