Weak Demand Weighs on Butadiene Market

October 27, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, the Chinese butadiene market showed a downward fluctuation during this period. From October 20 to October 27, 2025, the price of butadiene decreased from 8,440 CNY/ton to 8,233.33 CNY/ton, a drop of 2.45%. During this period, the overall performance of the Chinese butadiene market was weak. The downstream synthetic rubber market showed low enthusiasm for entering the market, with a weak intention to purchase raw material butadiene. The actual market transactions were poor, lacking demand support, and the butadiene market operated weakly overall during this period.

Cost Perspective: According to the commodity market analysis system, as of the 24th, the settlement price for the December contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $61.50 per barrel, while the December contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.94 per barrel. This week, crude oil prices initially fell before rebounding. At the beginning of the period, OPEC+ had already initiated a new round of production increases totaling 1.65 million barrels per day. However, the market remains concerned about the long-term risk of supply surplus. Meanwhile, the easing of tensions between Israel and Palestine, coupled with weakening demand in the U.S., has weighed on global economic growth and dampened expectations for energy demand, causing international oil prices to plunge rapidly. Later in the period, though, as Western nations continued their sanctions against certain oil-producing countries—and amid growing concerns that the negative pressures from U.S. tariffs and trade disputes were starting to ease—the crude oil market began to recover, driving prices higher.

Supply side: Sinopec's various sales companies are listing the butadiene price at 8,400 CNY per ton.

Shenghong Refining's 200,000 tons/year butadiene unit is operating normally, with an increase of 50 CNY/ton, now priced at 8,350 CNY/ton.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year butadiene unit is operating normally, with 196 tons sold externally at a price of 8,400 CNY per ton.

Satellite Chemical Lianyungang Petrochemical's 90,000 tons/year butadiene unit is operating normally, with a price of 8,400 CNY/ton.

Demand Side: According to the commodity market analysis system, the market for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in Northwest China has seen a slight upward trend. Recently, futures prices for cis-1,4-PBR have been fluctuating within a narrow range, while downstream inquiries remain subdued. As a result, traders have marginally raised their quotes by around 50 CNY/ton on average. However, actual market transactions remain sluggish, with downstream buyers primarily making small-scale inquiries. As of October 24, mainstream quotes for cis-1,4-PBR from suppliers such as Sichuan, Dushanzi, and Lande ranged between 11,150 and 11,300 CNY/ton.

Market Forecast: Recently, some Chinese production facilities have resumed operations, leading to an overall more relaxed supply situation. While the downstream synthetic rubber market has shown a slight recovery, actual demand from end-users has yet to pick up significantly. As a result, market sentiment remains generally weak. Under the backdrop of cautious, rigid demand procurement intentions, the spot market continues to operate on the weaker side. With no strong positive catalysts to boost prices, the butadiene market is expected to remain volatile and predominantly weak in the near term. Key attention should be paid to downstream purchasing activity.