October Methanol Market Shows Wide Fluctuations in China

October 31st, according to news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from October 1st to 31st (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in the East China port market in China rose initially and then fell from 2,237 CNY/ton to 2,215 CNY/ton. The price decreased by 3.69% during the period, with a maximum fluctuation of 7.27%, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.28%.

The methanol market at Chinese ports has been under high supply pressure, showing a generally weak and volatile trend. By the end of the month, the unloading of foreign vessels still did not meet expectations, but the volume of goods picked up significantly decreased, leading to a slight increase in inventory. The market also saw a high level of available supply, and downstream purchasing intentions were low, causing prices to weaken again. In the domestic Chinese methanol market, the trend was initially positive but then turned negative. The weakening supply and demand situation limited the willingness to hold stocks, and the overall weak pattern has not fundamentally changed.

As of the close on October 31, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in China fell. The main methanol futures contract 2601 opened at 2202 CNY/ton, reached a high of 2219 CNY/ton, a low of 2172 CNY/ton, and closed at 2180 CNY/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan or 2.37% from the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 826,939, the open interest was 1,350,958, with an increase of 29,995 in open interest for the day.

Methanol Spot and Futures Comparison Chart:

As of October 31, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

On the cost side, as the supply-demand structure improves temporarily, rising coal prices are putting upward pressure on methanol costs, leading to a sharp squeeze in profits for coal-to-methanol producers. However, certain positive factors on the cost front continue to provide support.

Coal/Steam Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Demand Side: The demand side is under considerable pressure, as downstream secondary and tertiary markets have recently seen noticeable price decreases. This has pushed most industries into a severe profit-margin crisis, sharply curtailing both purchasing enthusiasm and actual demand for methanol. In particular, November is expected to witness a significant drop in demand from the MTO sector—this segment, being the core downstream consumer of methanol, plays a pivotal role in shaping market dynamics. As most downstream products remain sensitive to methanol prices, the overall demand outlook for methanol remains tilted toward the bearish side.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (downstream product) price trend comparison chart:

Supply side, Xindongheng and Guangju New Materials are undergoing plant maintenance; Sinopec Great Wall facility is reducing production; Shanxi Coking and Jinmei Huayu facilities have resumed operations. Overall, the amount of lost capacity exceeds the amount of restored capacity, leading to a decline in the capacity utilization rate. The supply side of methanol is influenced by positive factors.

On the international markets, as of the close on October 30, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market settled at $323.5–$324.5 per ton. Meanwhile, the FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 88.5–89.5 cents per gallon, while the FOB Rotterdam methanol market in Europe ended at €266.5–€267.5 per ton.

Market Forecast: Several methanol units undergoing maintenance will gradually resume operations, ensuring a steady domestic supply. Meanwhile, coastal inventory reduction efforts will continue to closely monitor fluctuations on the supply side. Methanol analysts expect China's spot methanol market to remain predominantly in a weak and consolidating trend.