October MTBE Market Trend Fluctuates and Declines in China

October 31 News

According to the commodity market analysis system, the MTBE market in China experienced a fluctuating downward trend in October. From October 1st to 31st, the price of MTBE fell from 5,042 CNY/ton to 4,920 CNY/ton, with a price decrease of 2.43% during the period, and the maximum fluctuation was 5.37%. The price decreased by 7.61% year-over-year.

After entering October, China's MTBE market has shown a volatile downward trend. While the first half of the month benefited from strong travel demand during the National Day holiday, the latter part saw gasoline consumption enter its off-season as the holiday came to an end. Meanwhile, several MTBE producers have resumed operations, leading to an increase in supply and intensifying pressure on manufacturers to sell their products. Combined with weak gasoline demand, these multiple negative factors have collectively weighed heavily on the market, causing MTBE prices to fluctuate downward.

MTBE China Production Price Average Trend Chart:

On the cost front, international crude oil prices declined in October. In the first half of the month, OPEC+ continued increasing production, while tensions between Israel and Palestine gradually eased. At the same time, ongoing U.S. tariff concerns continued to pose potential risks, contributing to the drop in global oil prices. By the middle of the month, market participants grew concerned about the risk of oversupply, and the trade disputes sparked by the U.S. further dampened demand prospects, pushing oil prices lower once again. However, toward the end of the month, the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Russian oil companies, spurring worries about heightened supply risks and ultimately driving international oil prices higher.

Demand Side: On the gasoline terminal demand front, as weather continues to cool, operators are traveling less frequently, leading to reduced procurement of gasoline feedstock—or at best maintaining only essential needs—making it difficult for any significant positive factors to emerge. Meanwhile, MTBE demand remains weighed down by bearish influences.

On the supply side, Sanjiang Petrochemical’s newly built dehydrogenation unit began operations this month, followed by the start-up of facilities at Heilongjiang Xinrui, Yuhuang Shengrong, Shandong Chengtai, and Dongfang Hongye. By the end of the month, Yantai Wanhua and Huangshi Tianyuan units are set to come online. Meanwhile, Ligewei and Xinxinyuan will undergo plant maintenance during the same period. Overall, these developments point to an increase in resource supply. However, the broader Chinese MTBE supply situation remains weighed down by bearish factors.

As of October 31, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected production companies:

As of the close on October 30, the Asian MTBE market closed at $660.01–$662.01 per ton, up $3.69 from the previous trading day on an FOB Singapore basis. Meanwhile, the European MTBE market edged down by $7.5 per ton compared to the prior session, with prices settling at $887.24–$887.74 per ton on an FOB ARA basis. In the U.S., the MTBE market closed higher by $0.68 per ton, with FOB Gulf Coast prices reaching $849.85–$850.20 per ton (equivalent to 239.96–240.06 cents per gallon).

Market Forecast There is an expectation of increased resource supply. The export volume of MTBE in November may decrease compared to October, which will also exacerbate the oversupply pressure to some extent. MTBE analysts believe that the MTBE market in China may operate weakly.