Supply and Demand Game, Melamine Market in China Stabilizes and Observes

November 13, News

This week, the overall melamine market in China showed a stable and slightly strong trend. As of November 13, the benchmark price of melamine was 5,387.50 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.68% compared to last week (5,375.50 CNY/ton).

Central China: The market performance is stable, with a slight increase. For example, in Hubei, a manufacturer reported a factory price of 5250 CNY/ton on November 10; in Henan, a manufacturer also raised the ex-factory offer to 5300 CNY/ton on November 11. This indicates that the mainstream price has stabilized above 5000 CNY/ton and is attempting to slightly explore an upward trend.

Supply Side:

The main driver of stable prices comes from a tightening supply. During the same period, some major production facilities were shut down, directly reducing market supply. It was reported that the first and second phase units of Henan Haohua Junhua were "out of operation for a long time." A 50,000-ton capacity unit of Sichuan Meifeng was also shut down. The shutdown of these key facilities provided strong support for market prices.

Cost Side:

The price of raw urea declined quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2025, weakening cost support for melamine and leaving its prices without upward momentum.

Demand Side:

The construction materials sector, which accounts for 60% of melamine demand, has seen a direct impact from the sluggish real estate market, leading to shrinking demand. Meanwhile, while export volumes have increased somewhat, the average export price has dropped significantly year-on-year, resulting in a situation characterized by "rising volume but declining profits."

In summary, despite the positive factors on the supply side, the overall market sentiment for the melamine sector remains cautious. Industry observers note that as companies previously shut down their operations may resume production in the near future, the upward momentum from the supply side could weaken. Meanwhile, prices of upstream raw material urea have begun to ease, potentially prompting businesses to adjust their pricing strategies flexibly based on individual order situations. This aligns with the prevailing market attitude of "holding steady and waiting for further developments."